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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/28/2019

2019-11-28 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,643  4,083  150 -590 3,807 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,647  4,083  150 -586 3,812 
Costal Shandong 6,480  3,080  3,664  4,083  150 -569 3,800 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,950  3,552  4,083  150 -681 3,812 
Guangdong 6,480  2,870  3,499  4,083  150 -735 3,800 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,643  4,030  150 -537 3,740 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,647  4,030  150 -533 3,745 
Costal Shandong 6,480  3,080  3,664  4,030  150 -516 3,733 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,950  3,552  4,030  150 -628 3,745 
Guangdong 6,480  2,870  3,499  4,030  150 -682 3,733 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,707  3,269  150  288  2,695 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,711  3,269  150  292  2,700 
Costal Shandong 6,480  3,080  3,729  3,269  150  310  2,687 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,950  3,617  3,269  150  198  2,700 
Guangdong 6,480  2,870  3,563  3,269  150  144  2,687 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,578  3,147  150  281  2,704 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,583  3,147  150  286  2,708 
Costal Shandong 6,480  3,080  3,600  3,147  150  303  2,697 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,950  3,488  3,147  150  191  2,708 
Guangdong 6,480  2,870  3,434  3,147  150  137  2,697 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,611  3,500  150  -39  3,110 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,615  3,500  150  -35  3,114 
Costal Shandong 6,480  3,080  3,632  3,500  150  -18  3,103 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,950  3,520  3,500  150  -130  3,114 
Guangdong 6,480  2,870  3,466  3,500  150  -184  3,103 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,600  3,210  3,624  3,440  160  24  3,180 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,450  3,060  3,480  3,560  160  -240  3,360 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,430  3,070  3,485  3,580  160  -255  3,389 
Boxing, Shandong 6,490  3,070  3,494  3,600  160  -266  3,402 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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