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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--28/11/2019

Today (Nov. 28), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,180 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. The United States signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law, and China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement strongly denouncing the so-called new law which is described as a serious interference in Hong Kong affairs. The uncertain trade relationship between the two countries is bullish to domestic distribution markets. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep firm in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed price stays stable with several rises of 0.04 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed production is lower than the previous year, so there are not many spot goods available for sale and the supply is tight. Thus, cottonseed market is supported. However, oil mills purchase cottonseed prudently due to little shipping quantity of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal, some mills even halt the purchase. In consequence, cottonseed market is dragged down. It is expected that short-term cottonseed may fluctuate at a narrow range but not change the overall upward trend.


Summary: US soybean futures dropped for a sixth day in row on Wednesday. Oil futures stop falling to inch higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot markets are mostly stable, of which soybean oil fluctuates partially by 40-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil sees a partial rise of 10-50 yuan/tonne. There are some low-level deals, but the overall trading is tepid. Palm oil is in the period of reduced production in major production countries, while the demand from biodiesel will grow. In addition, soybean oil stocks keep decreasing in China and mills now still have a lot of outstanding contracts. The bullish fundamentals encourage mills to prop up prices, so oil futures show some upward momentum today after previous declines. But gross crush margins for Brazilian soybeans stay high at 238-307 yuan/tonne, so mills are scooping up on soybeans and soybean arrivals may go as high as 9.22 mln tonnes in December. This is weakening the upward impetus of oils. Short-term oil market may continue to follow futures to fluctuate frequently, but will keep its strong pattern. Buyers are suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,460-6,580 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some fluctuating by 40-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6460-6470, Rizhao traders 6,530, Zhangjiagang traders 6,530, and Guangzhou mills 6,580 and traders 6,460-6,470). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,480-5,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial rise of 10-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,610-5,620, up 30; Rizhao traders 5,630-5,640, flat; Zhangjiagang traders 5,560, up 10;Guangzhou traders 5,480, up 50; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil edges up in price today, of which it settles up 20-30 yuan at 7,640-7,820 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,640; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,820.) Chinese mills have to lower down operation rates due to tight rapeseed supply which is partially caused by rocky relations between China and Canada. Rapeseed oil stocks are low at present and will go even lower as buyers are stocking up for the New Year’s Day. The overall market is predicted to stay strong, but short-term trend may fluctuate in the wake of futures. Buyers can wait at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some declines of 50-100 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed oil market is weighed down, which resulted from tepid actual transactions of some factories. However, the declines of prices are also curbed by low stock of cottonseed oil in some factories and pricey cottonseed. Besides, oils on DCE today stop declining but rise slightly, which also limits the rises. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market may fluctuate to adjust. Additionally, the fundamentals of bulk oils still bull the market, so the outlook is also optimistic relatively. Buyers can make replenishment in small batches upon low and stable prices.

(USD $1=CNY7.03)