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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/2/2019

2019-12-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,614  4,072  150 -609 3,800 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,641  4,072  150 -581 3,805 
Costal Shandong 6,460  3,060  3,645  4,072  150 -577 3,791 
Jiangsu 6,420  2,920  3,527  4,072  150 -695 3,800 
Guangdong 6,450  2,830  3,461  4,072  150 -761 3,793 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,614  4,011  150 -548 3,723 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,641  4,011  150 -520 3,728 
Costal Shandong 6,460  3,060  3,645  4,011  150 -516 3,713 
Jiangsu 6,420  2,920  3,527  4,011  150 -634 3,723 
Guangdong 6,450  2,830  3,461  4,011  150 -700 3,716 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,678  3,255  150  273  2,685 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,705  3,255  150  300  2,690 
Costal Shandong 6,460  3,060  3,709  3,255  150  304  2,675 
Jiangsu 6,420  2,920  3,591  3,255  150  186  2,685 
Guangdong 6,450  2,830  3,526  3,255  150  121  2,677 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,549  3,128  150  271  2,687 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,577  3,128  150  299  2,691 
Costal Shandong 6,460  3,060  3,580  3,128  150  302  2,677 
Jiangsu 6,420  2,920  3,462  3,128  150  184  2,687 
Guangdong 6,450  2,830  3,397  3,128  150  119  2,680 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,581  3,500  150  -69  3,117 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,609  3,500  150  -41  3,122 
Costal Shandong 6,460  3,060  3,613  3,500  150  -38  3,107 
Jiangsu 6,420  2,920  3,495  3,500  150  -156  3,117 
Guangdong 6,450  2,830  3,429  3,500  150  -221  3,110 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,570  3,180  3,595  3,440  160  -5  3,186 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,420  3,030  3,451  3,560  160  -269  3,366 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400  3,070  3,480  3,580  160  -260  3,395 
Boxing, Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,472  3,600  160  -288  3,410 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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