Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. Besides, it is reported that China and the United States have not agreed on specific details or the scales of tariff reduction on Chinese imports, and the United States has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law. Due to such an uncertain trade outlook, US soybean imports may be limited. The overall distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to keep firm in the near term.

Crush: As mills continue to raise operation rates this week (Nov. 23-29), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,775,350 tonnes (meal 1,402,526 tonnes and oil 337,316 tonnes), up 4,650 tonnes, or 0.26%, from 1,770,700 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 48.97%, up 0.13 percentage points from 48.84% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to decline slightly to around 1.72 mln tonnes next week as some mills halt for soybean shortages, and the to increase again to 1.81 mln tonnes that following week. 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.19 mln tonnes in October at current utilization rate, above the 6.69 mln tonnes in September and slightly above 7.18 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.  

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 13,715,600 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,922,985 tonnes, or 12.29%, from 15,638,585 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 75,757,015 tonnes, down 5,311,365 tonnes, or 6.55%, from 81,068,380 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Imported soybean increase slightly in stocks this week. In the week as of November 29th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,988,300 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 18,500 tonnes by 0.32% from 2,969,800 tonnes last week yet down by 51.00% from 6,099,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush is predicted to drop slightly to 1.72 mln tonnes as some mills will halt production for shortages, But soybean stocks will likely rise a little bit due to large imports arrivals in December. 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 24 cargoes with 1.54 mln tonnes this week, a total of 114 cargoes with 7.3625 mln tonnes for November. The import is predicted to be 144 cargoes with 9.349 mln tonnes for December, and 7 mln tonnes for January, 4.5 mln tonnes for February, and 4.8 mln tonnes for March. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Nov. 25-29), domestic soybean meal prices decline. As of this Friday, the price settles down 10-60 yuan/tonne to at 2,840-3,050 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks pile up further higher this week due to rising soybean crush. In the week as of November 29th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 413,700 tonnes, up 42,400 tonnes by 11.42% from 371,300 tonnes last week yet down by 56.12% from 943,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to be little changed next week as soybean crush will reduced fractionally, and its tight supply pattern may not ease until late December. 

Price: This week (Nov. 25-29), domestic soybean oil prices fall. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles down 50-120 yuan/tonne at 6,480-6,590 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks decline further this week as mills are still fulfilling contracts signed previously, but the decline is smaller under growing operation rates. In the week as of Nov. 29th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,060,900 tonnes, down 24,900 tonnes by 2.29% from 1,085,800 tonnes last week, down 219,100 tonnes by 17.12% from 1,280,000 tonnes last month, and down 729,100 tonnes by 40.73% from 1,790,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,313,300 tonnes.