China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 48, 2019)

2019-12-03 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

This week (as of Nov. 29), edible palm oil stock totals 694,000 tonnes at domestic ports, up 2.3% from 678,600 tonnes last week; up 159,400 tonnes or 29.8% from 534,600 tonnes the same period last month; up 274,400 tonnes or 65.4% from 419,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 119,300 tonnes, down 9,700 tonnes or 7.5% from 129,000 tonnes last week.

This week, edible palm oil stock rises further as there are quite a few cargoes of palm oil arriving at ports. And the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil keeps narrowing. As of this Friday, the price gap is 845 yuan/tonne, narrowing by 123 yuan/tonne from 968 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be restricted with the temperature decreasing. There is not a lot of demand for palm oil currently, while the volume of imported palm oil in December will still be higher. Thus, domestic palm oil stock is predicted to increase continually later period.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W48	W47	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W48	W47	Change
Tianjin Port	7.4	6.4	1	5.70%	-19.10%	3	3.6	-0.6
Hebei	0.54	0.7	-0.16	20.00%	170.00%	0.13	0.15	-0.02
Shandong Port	5.85	5.46	0.39	91.10%	125.00%	1.8	1.25	0.55
East China	26.35	26.55	-0.2	60.70%	103.30%	4.55	5.15	-0.6
Guangdong	24.75	24.65	0.1	18.70%	106.80%	2.2	2.45	-0.25
Guangxi	2.41	1.55	0.86	-3.40%	35.40%	0.25	0.3	-0.05
Fujian	2.1	2.55	-0.45	-34.30%	-36.40%	0	0	0
Total：	69.4	67.86	1.54	29.80%	65.40%	11.93	12.9	-0.97

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for November this week is 720,000 tonnes, which is unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 600,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for December also remains flat at 670,000 tonnes compared with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); the estimate for January is 420,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/11/25	Jan. 2019	690	5836	5706	-130
2019/11/25	Feb. 2019	697.5	5899	5886	-13
2019/11/26	Dec. 2019	682.5	5769	5462	-307
2019/11/26	Jan. 2019	682.5	5769	5462	-307
2019/11/26	Feb. 2019	687.5	5811	5690	-121
2019/11/27	Dec. 2019	672.5	5685	5440	-245
2019/11/27	Jan. 2019	677.5	5727	5440	-287
2019/11/28	Dec. 2019	675	5705	5400	-305
2019/11/28	Jan. 2019	680	5747	5400	-347
2019/11/29	Dec. 2019	685	5844	5594	-250
2019/11/29	Jan. 2019	690	5886	5594	-292
2019/11/29	Feb. 2019	695	5928	5766	-162
2019/11/29	Mar.2019	700	5970	5766	-204

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/11/25	0
2019/11/26	0
2019/11/27	0
2019/11/28	0
2019/11/29	0

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