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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 48, 2019)

2019-12-03 www.cofeed.com
I. National stocks

This week (as of Nov. 29), edible palm oil stock totals 694,000 tonnes at domestic ports, up 2.3% from 678,600 tonnes last week; up 159,400 tonnes or 29.8% from 534,600 tonnes the same period last month; up 274,400 tonnes or 65.4% from 419,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 119,300 tonnes, down 9,700 tonnes or 7.5% from 129,000 tonnes last week.

This week, edible palm oil stock rises further as there are quite a few cargoes of palm oil arriving at ports. And the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil keeps narrowing. As of this Friday, the price gap is 845 yuan/tonne, narrowing by 123 yuan/tonne from 968 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be restricted with the temperature decreasing. There is not a lot of demand for palm oil currently, while the volume of imported palm oil in December will still be higher. Thus, domestic palm oil stock is predicted to increase continually later period.

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 mT

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W48

W47

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W48

W47

Change

Tianjin Port

7.4

6.4

1

5.70%

-19.10%

3

3.6

-0.6

Hebei

0.54

0.7

-0.16

20.00%

170.00%

0.13

0.15

-0.02

Shandong Port

5.85

5.46

0.39

91.10%

125.00%

1.8

1.25

0.55

East China

26.35

26.55

-0.2

60.70%

103.30%

4.55

5.15

-0.6

Guangdong

24.75

24.65

0.1

18.70%

106.80%

2.2

2.45

-0.25

Guangxi

2.41

1.55

0.86

-3.40%

35.40%

0.25

0.3

-0.05

Fujian

2.1

2.55

-0.45

-34.30%

-36.40%

0

0

0

Total

69.4

67.86

1.54

29.80%

65.40%

11.93

12.9

-0.97



Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for November this week is 720,000 tonnes, which is unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 600,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for December also remains flat at 670,000 tonnes compared with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); the estimate for January is 420,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments


Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/mT

Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)

DCE
(RBM/mT)

Import Margin

2019/11/25

Jan. 2019

690

5836

5706

-130

2019/11/25

Feb. 2019

697.5

5899

5886

-13

2019/11/26

Dec. 2019

682.5

5769

5462

-307

2019/11/26

Jan. 2019

682.5

5769

5462

-307

2019/11/26

Feb. 2019

687.5

5811

5690

-121

2019/11/27

Dec. 2019

672.5

5685

5440

-245

2019/11/27

Jan. 2019

677.5

5727

5440

-287

2019/11/28

Dec. 2019

675

5705

5400

-305

2019/11/28

Jan. 2019

680

5747

5400

-347

2019/11/29

Dec. 2019

685

5844

5594

-250

2019/11/29

Jan. 2019

690

5886

5594

-292

2019/11/29

Feb. 2019

695

5928

5766

-162

2019/11/29

Mar.2019

700

5970

5766

-204

Date

Cargoes

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/mT

Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)

Qty.
0'000 mT

2019/11/25

0

  

 

 

 

2019/11/26

0

 

 

 

 

2019/11/27

0

  

  

  

  

2019/11/28

0

  

  

  

  

2019/11/29

0