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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 3/12/2019

2019-12-03 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,606  4,072  150 -616 3,810 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,628  4,072  150 -594 3,812 
Costal Shandong 6,430  3,050  3,631  4,072  150 -591 3,798 
Jiangsu 6,400  2,920  3,523  4,072  150 -699 3,805 
Guangdong 6,450  2,820  3,453  4,072  150 -769 3,793 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,606  4,011  150 -555 3,733 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,628  4,011  150 -533 3,735 
Costal Shandong 6,430  3,050  3,631  4,011  150 -530 3,721 
Jiangsu 6,400  2,920  3,523  4,011  150 -638 3,728 
Guangdong 6,450  2,820  3,453  4,011  150 -708 3,716 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,670  3,255  150  265  2,695 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,691  3,255  150  286  2,697 
Costal Shandong 6,430  3,050  3,696  3,255  150  291  2,682 
Jiangsu 6,400  2,920  3,587  3,255  150  182  2,690 
Guangdong 6,450  2,820  3,518  3,255  150  113  2,677 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,542  3,128  150  264  2,696 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,564  3,128  150  286  2,698 
Costal Shandong 6,430  3,050  3,567  3,128  150  289  2,684 
Jiangsu 6,400  2,920  3,459  3,128  150  181  2,691 
Guangdong 6,450  2,820  3,389  3,128  150  111  2,680 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,574  3,500  150  -76  3,126 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,596  3,500  150  -54  3,129 
Costal Shandong 6,430  3,050  3,599  3,500  150  -51  3,114 
Jiangsu 6,400  2,920  3,491  3,500  150  -159  3,122 
Guangdong 6,450  2,820  3,421  3,500  150  -229  3,110 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,530  3,180  3,589  3,440  160  -11  3,194 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,380  3,030  3,445  3,560  160  -275  3,374 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,060  3,467  3,580  160  -273  3,401 
Boxing, Shandong 6,420  3,040  3,459  3,600  160  -301  3,416 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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