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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 4/12/2019

2019-12-04 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,600  4,094  150 -644 3,835 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,580  4,094  150 -664 3,840 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,635  4,094  150 -609 3,821 
Jiangsu 6,440  2,920  3,530  4,094  150 -714 3,823 
Guangdong 6,470  2,840  3,473  4,094  150 -771 3,816 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,600  4,033  150 -583 3,758 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,580  4,033  150 -603 3,763 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,635  4,033  150 -548 3,744 
Jiangsu 6,440  2,920  3,530  4,033  150 -653 3,746 
Guangdong 6,470  2,840  3,473  4,033  150 -710 3,739 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,664  3,264  150  250  2,704 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,644  3,264  150  230  2,709 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,700  3,264  150  286  2,689 
Jiangsu 6,440  2,920  3,595  3,264  150  181  2,691 
Guangdong 6,470  2,840  3,538  3,264  150  124  2,684 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,536  3,136  150  250  2,704 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,517  3,136  150  231  2,708 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,571  3,136  150  285  2,690 
Jiangsu 6,440  2,920  3,466  3,136  150  180  2,692 
Guangdong 6,470  2,840  3,408  3,136  150  122  2,685 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,568  3,500  150  -82  3,124 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,129 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,050  3,603  3,500  150  -47  3,110 
Jiangsu 6,440  2,920  3,498  3,500  150  -152  3,112 
Guangdong 6,470  2,840  3,441  3,500  150  -209  3,105 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,540  3,170  3,582  3,440  160  -18  3,192 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,020  3,438  3,560  160  -282  3,372 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,370  3,000  3,419  3,580  160  -321  3,401 
Boxing, Shandong 6,450  3,040  3,464  3,600  160  -296  3,410 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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