Today (Dec. 4), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,180 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. Besides, US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with Beijing might have to wait until after the presidential election in November 2020, and US Commerce Secretary said that additional tariffs on Chinese imports will be imposed on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is substantive progress in talks between the two countries. This once again triggers concerns over trade negotiations. Soybean imports from the US may thus get impeded by renewed concerns over bilateral trade disputes, which will be bullish to domestic distribution markets. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep firm in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some rises of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg. The cottonseed production is lower than the previous year, so there are not many spot goods available for sale and the supply is tight. But ranches continue to purchase cottonseed. Moreover, the freight from Xinjiang to inland rises slightly for lack of vehicles.  Thus, cottonseed market is boosted. However, oil mills purchase cottonseed prudently due to little shipping quantity of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal. In consequence, the rises of cottonseed prices are limited. It is expected that short-term cottonseed may go up with fluctuations. As oils and meals are fluctuating, buyers should be cautious in chasing up prices.

Summary: US soybean futures rebounded technically on Tuesday after declining for eight consecutive sessions. Oil futures continue to move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot market, soybean oil sees a rise of 10-80 yuan/tonne and palm oil up by 40-130 yuan/tonne. Gains are not very large from the previous close, but buyers remain cautious and back off from making huge purchases. Soybean oil stocks keep decreasing as mills previously have signed many forward contracts, and buyers are queuing up for picking up goods in northeast and east China. In addition, due to tensions between China and Canada, rapeseed and rapeseed oil stocks are also reducing. The overall oil market now has strong support at the bottom. 

On trade war front, US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with Beijing might have to wait until after the presidential election in November 2020, and US Commerce Secretary said that additional tariffs on Chinese imports will be imposed on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is substantive progress in talks between the two countries. This once again triggers concerns over trade negotiations. The United States passed through Hong Kong and Xinjiang bills as a way to interfere in China’s internal affairs, which encountered firm protest and countermeasures by China. This once again triggers concerns over trade negotiations. US stock market slumped last night and Chinese yuan also traded lower. 

The overall domestic oil market is bullish and remains in a state where it will easily jump higher. But due to handsome crush margins, Chinese importers keep on scooping up soybeans. Mills are picking up operation rates due to tight soybean meal supplies, and this affects short-term upward space and adds to fluctuations. Buyers need to keep balance between purchases and sales at the moment.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,440-6,570 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 10-80 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,450-6,460, Rizhao traders 6,550, Zhangjiagang traders 6,540, and Guangzhou mills 6,570 and traders 6,440). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,700-5,850 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up 20-130 yuan/tonne.(Tianjin traders5,760-5,770, up 40; Rizhao traders 5,790-5,800, up 130;Zhangjiagang traders 5,730, up 20;Guangzhou traders 5,700, up 40; and Xiamen 5,850, up 100). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan at 7,670-7,880 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,670; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,880.) US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with Beijing might have to wait until after the presidential election in November 2020, and US Commerce Secretary said that additional tariffs on Chinese imports will be imposed on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is substantive progress in talks between the two countries. This once again triggers concerns over trade negotiations. Rapeseed supply is tightening in China amid impending issues with Canada, so mills have no choice but to sharply cut down operation rates. Mills are propping up rapeseed oil prices due to tight supplies. And Funds speculate on increasing long positions on the dips. Rapeseed oil market is predicted to stay strengthening, but may suffer frequent fluctuations on the back of futures. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil stays stable today. Cottonseed prices remain high, and oils on DCE today also move higher. Spot soybean oil rises by 10-80 yuan/tonne and spot palm oil rises by 40-130 yuan/tonne. As for the trade war, U.S. President Donald Trump commented that the trade deal with China might have to wait until after the election in November 2020. And U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the additional tariffs on China will take effect on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is a significant progress in the talks. In addition, China has resolutely protested against the US’s interference in China’s internal affairs through Hongkong bill and Xinjiang bill, raising fresh concerns about the trade negotiations of two countries. As a result, it had triggered a sharp fall in US stocks and a depreciation in RMB last night, which was bullish for cottonseed oil market. However, cottonseed oil price rose excessively a few days ago. Besides, the actual contract is dull, for factories offer high but trade lower. Therefore, short-term cottonseed oil price will be weak in rally and remain flat relatively. But bulk oils are fluctuating to adjust, so buyers can stay on the sideline or make small replenishment upon low prices.