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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/12/2019

Today (Dec. 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rebounded technically on Tuesday after declining for eight consecutive sessions. Meal futures fluctuate at a narrow range on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily go up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,830-3,020 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,020, Shandong 3,000-3,020, Jiangsu 2,900-2,920, Dongguan 2,830-2,850, and Guangxi 2,850-2,860, Fujian 2,890-2,910.) Good crush margins on the DCE are luring Chinese importers to scoop up soybeans, for which soybean arrivals at ports will reach up to 9.35 mln tonnes in December. And soybean meal stocks in coastal regions have started to rise from the low level, while the demand from aquaculture in southern China has gone slack. But some Shandong mills are not in operation due to soybean shortages, so it will take some time for soybean meal to ease supply tensions. Meanwhile, recent rises in hog prices may attract farmers to replenish or stall sales, and buyers will very soon begin to replenish soybean meal for the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival. Besides, US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with Beijing might have to wait until after the presidential election in November 2020, and US Commerce Secretary said that additional tariffs on Chinese imports will be imposed on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is substantive progress in talks between the two countries. This once again triggers concerns over trade negotiations. Overall, soybean meal market has little downside space and also weak upward impetus, and it still requires for more bullish factors. Buyers with inadequate stocks can replenish appropriately on the dips. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,190-2,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280; Guangdong not offered; Fujian not offered). The rapeseed supply is still tightening amid tensions between China and Canada, and some factories have no cargo of rapeseed arriving at ports. Thus, the rapeseed crush is expected to go down further. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump commented that the signing of trade deal with China might have to wait until after the election in November 2020. And U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the additional tariffs on China will take effect on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is a significant progress in the talks. It has raised fresh concerns about trade negotiations between the two countries. And oil mills have a strong will to prop up prices. However, China keeps purchasing South America soybeans under the considerable crush margins of futures. In consequence, the quantity of soybeans arriving at ports in December will reach 9.35 mln tonnes, so oil mills are more willing to improve the operation rate and inventory of soybean meal continues increasing. Besides, the demand from aquaculture in South China is entering into slack season. Therefore, the rises of rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors, and short-term prices still mainly fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips and not to drive up prices excessively.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 8,900-9,100yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,200-9,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne. Fish catches are in good shape in Peru so that the market is bearish about high quota. And in China, the demand for fishmeal is hard to improve significantly in the short term, for aquaculture was over in north China with cold winter coming and the African swine fever is still spreading. And traders tend to stay on the sidelines, which is negative to the market. But traders pin their hope on the New Year’s Day, for the replenishment before that may bring some support. Overall, short-term fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in China. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,130 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,360 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep stable today. The demand for cottonseed meal is affected by narrow price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Besides, the aquaculture in South area is entering into a slack season, so cottonseed meal is short of support of rigid demand. And there is not much trade of cottonseed meal. Thus, the price of cottonseed meal is curbed by these factors. However, the cottonseed is pricey, and spot soybean meal steadily up by 10-20 yuan/tonne today. On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump commented that the signing of trade deal with China might have to wait until after the election in November 2020. And U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the additional tariffs on China will take effect on Dec. 15 as scheduled, unless there is a significant progress in the talks. It has cast doubt on the trade negotiations of two sides, which is bullish for domestic meals market. In a hybrid of bull and a bear, short-term cottonseed meal market is predicted to be flat relatively.

(USD $1=CNY 7.04)