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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/12/2019

2019-12-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,584  4,110  150 -676 3,846 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,574  4,110  150 -686 3,848 
Costal Shandong 6,470  3,030  3,623  4,110  150 -637 3,836 
Jiangsu 6,480  2,920  3,538  4,110  150 -722 3,834 
Guangdong 6,470  2,810  3,449  4,110  150 -811 3,836 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,584  4,049  150 -615 3,769 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,574  4,049  150 -625 3,771 
Costal Shandong 6,470  3,030  3,623  4,049  150 -576 3,759 
Jiangsu 6,480  2,920  3,538  4,049  150 -661 3,757 
Guangdong 6,470  2,810  3,449  4,049  150 -750 3,759 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,648  3,275  150  223  2,708 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,638  3,275  150  213  2,710 
Costal Shandong 6,470  3,030  3,688  3,275  150  263  2,697 
Jiangsu 6,480  2,920  3,603  3,275  150  178  2,695 
Guangdong 6,470  2,810  3,514  3,275  150  89  2,697 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,520  3,148  150  222  2,710 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,510  3,148  150  212  2,712 
Costal Shandong 6,470  3,030  3,558  3,148  150  260  2,701 
Jiangsu 6,480  2,920  3,473  3,148  150  175  2,698 
Guangdong 6,470  2,810  3,385  3,148  150  87  2,701 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,552  3,500  150  -98  3,114 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,542  3,500  150  -108  3,117 
Costal Shandong 6,470  3,030  3,591  3,500  150  -59  3,105 
Jiangsu 6,480  2,920  3,506  3,500  150  -144  3,103 
Guangdong 6,470  2,810  3,417  3,500  150  -233  3,105 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,580  3,140  3,565  3,440  160  -35  3,184 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,990  3,421  3,560  160  -299  3,364 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,420  2,980  3,411  3,580  160  -329  3,391 
Boxing, Shandong 6,480  3,030  3,461  3,600  160  -299  3,404 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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