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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/12/2019

2019-12-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,617  4,091  150 -624 3,810 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,597  4,091  150 -644 3,815 
Costal Shandong 6,500  3,050  3,645  4,091  150 -597 3,805 
Jiangsu 6,520  2,930  3,554  4,091  150 -688 3,800 
Guangdong 6,500  2,840  3,479  4,091  150 -762 3,805 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,617  4,066  150 -599 3,778 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,597  4,066  150 -619 3,783 
Costal Shandong 6,500  3,050  3,645  4,066  150 -572 3,773 
Jiangsu 6,520  2,930  3,554  4,066  150 -663 3,769 
Guangdong 6,500  2,840  3,479  4,066  150 -737 3,773 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,682  3,279  150  253  2,700 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,662  3,279  150  233  2,705 
Costal Shandong 6,500  3,050  3,710  3,279  150  281  2,695 
Jiangsu 6,520  2,930  3,619  3,279  150  190  2,690 
Guangdong 6,500  2,840  3,544  3,279  150  115  2,695 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,552  3,161  150  241  2,715 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,533  3,161  150  222  2,719 
Costal Shandong 6,500  3,050  3,580  3,161  150  269  2,710 
Jiangsu 6,520  2,930  3,488  3,161  150  177  2,706 
Guangdong 6,500  2,840  3,414  3,161  150  103  2,710 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,585  3,500  150  -65  3,103 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,565  3,500  150  -85  3,107 
Costal Shandong 6,500  3,050  3,612  3,500  150  -38  3,098 
Jiangsu 6,520  2,930  3,521  3,500  150  -129  3,093 
Guangdong 6,500  2,840  3,446  3,500  150  -204  3,098 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,630  3,170  3,597  3,440  160  -3  3,174 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,020  3,453  3,560  160  -267  3,354 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,460  3,000  3,434  3,580  160  -306  3,383 
Boxing, Shandong 6,480  3,040  3,469  3,600  160  -291  3,404 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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