Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/12/2019

2019-12-09 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,628	4,105	150	-627	3,804
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,650	4,105	150	-605	3,806
Costal Shandong	6,580	3,050	3,660	4,105	150	-595	3,804
Jiangsu	6,620	2,950	3,588	4,105	150	-667	3,794
Guangdong	6,630	2,860	3,519	4,105	150	-736	3,792

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,628	4,080	150	-602	3,772
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,650	4,080	150	-580	3,774
Costal Shandong	6,580	3,050	3,660	4,080	150	-570	3,772
Jiangsu	6,620	2,950	3,588	4,080	150	-642	3,762
Guangdong	6,630	2,860	3,519	4,080	150	-711	3,760

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,694	3,284	150	260	2,681
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,716	3,284	150	282	2,684
Costal Shandong	6,580	3,050	3,726	3,284	150	292	2,681
Jiangsu	6,620	2,950	3,655	3,284	150	221	2,671
Guangdong	6,630	2,860	3,585	3,284	150	151	2,668

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,562	3,172	150	240	2,706
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,584	3,172	150	262	2,708
Costal Shandong	6,580	3,050	3,594	3,172	150	272	2,706
Jiangsu	6,620	2,950	3,522	3,172	150	200	2,697
Guangdong	6,630	2,860	3,453	3,172	150	131	2,694

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,595	3,500	150	-55	3,079
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,617	3,500	150	-33	3,082
Costal Shandong	6,580	3,050	3,627	3,500	150	-23	3,079
Jiangsu	6,620	2,950	3,555	3,500	150	-95	3,070
Guangdong	6,630	2,860	3,486	3,500	150	-164	3,068

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,730	3,160	3,605	3,440	160	5	3,154
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,010	3,461	3,560	160	-259	3,334
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,570	3,040	3,483	3,580	160	-257	3,361
Boxing, Shandong	6,640	3,040	3,494	3,600	160	-266	3,372
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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