According to Cofeed, on the week as of December 6th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

Some mills lower down operation rates as expected due to soybean shortages this week (Nov. 30-Dec. 6), so soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,652,600 tonnes (meal 1,305,554 tonnes and oil 313,994 tonnes), down 122,750 tonnes, or 6.91%, from 1,775,350 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 45.32%, down 3.65 percentage points from 48.97% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 1.71 mln tonnes next week and to 1.80 mln tonnes that following week. 

 

In addition to a decline in soybean crush, there are many forward contracts signed previously, so mills have been in fair shipments these days, and even seen long lines waiting for picking up goods in Tianjin, northeastern and eastern regions. In the week as of Dec. 6th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 996,350 tonnes, down 64,550 tonnes by 6.08% from 1,060,900 tonnes last week, down 207,150 tonnes by 17.21% from 1,203,500 tonnes last month, and down 768,650 tonnes by 43.55% from 1,765,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,286,330 tonnes. Mills still have a total of 1,500,450 tonnes in outstanding contracts, so soybean oil stocks will see a rundown in later period.

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years