Today (Dec. 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: China is working on tax exemptions on part of soybean and pork imports from the United States, and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that Donald Trump likes where trade talks with China are going and will make final decision on tariffs. US soybean futures further rose last Friday on rising hopes about a possible trade deal between the two countries. Meal futures post modest gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Specifically, the price settles at 2,830-3,000 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,000, Shandong 2,990-3,010, Jiangsu 2,880-2,940, Dongguan 2,830-2,860, and Guangxi 2,840-2,860, Fujian 2,890-2,910.) Chinese importers are scooping up on South American soybeans due to their good gross crush margins on the DCE. Soybean meal is tepid trading with slack demand from aquaculture in southern China and imports of alternative meals arriving at ports recently, so its stocks continue to increase by 2% to 420,000 tonnes last week. In addition, investors are buying up on oil futures. Therefore, soybean meal prices get curbed. But soybean meal supply is still tightening in some regions, so that some mills are still setting limited quantity for delivery. Besides, Liaoning and Guangdong governments are taking substantial measures in recovering hog production capacity, so the demand for soybean meal will get improved with larger hog and sow herd. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is likely to keep range bound, and to see some rises on forthcoming peak festival demand. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with a slight rise in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,190-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280; Guangdong not offered; Fujian not offered). There is no sign of easing Canada-China tensions, so most factories have no boatload of rapeseed arriving at ports in the late period. In consequence, oil plants are lack of rapeseed to crush. Last week, rapeseed inventory in coastal areas decreased to 11,500 tonnes, a decline of 35% week on week. Thus, oil mills have a strong will to raise prices. Nevertheless, oil plants keep purchasing South America soybean due to good crush margin of soybean futures. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture in South China is also entering into an off-season, which affects demand for meals. Therefore, the rises of rapeseed meal price are hindered by these factors. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 8,900-9,100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,200-9,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne. There has been festival demand at some ports with the coming of the New Year’s Day. But the market remains short with high fishing quota released by the Peruvian government, especially as fish catches get accelerating at present. Meanwhile, aquaculture has been wrapped up in northern China as the weather gets cold, and the African swine fever is still spreading, so it is less likely to improve the demand in the short term. Traders are still sitting up on the sidelines. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady to strengthen in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 97,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,130 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,360 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some rises of 20-50 yuan/tonne today. The market of cottonseed meal is support as cottonseed price remains high and fluctuate strongly; oil mills in some regions halt the operation for environmental protection; meals on DCE today rise moderately. However, the rises of meals prices are also depressed by poor demand affected by narrow price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, lack of rigid demand under a slack season of aquaculture in South China, coupled with light trading of cottonseed meal in some manufacturers. It is expected that short-term cottonseed meal may fluctuate at a narrow range. With traders stocking up cottonseed meal before Spring Festival, it may be hopeful to rally mildly. Buyers can keep safety inventory on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.