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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 10/12/2019

2019-12-10 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,603  4,176  150 -723 3,905 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,605  4,176  150 -721 3,913 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,640  4,176  150 -686 3,889 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,581  4,176  150 -745 3,893 
Guangdong 6,600  2,840  3,498  4,176  150 -828 3,889 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,603  4,113  150 -660 3,826 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,605  4,113  150 -658 3,833 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,640  4,113  150 -623 3,809 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,581  4,113  150 -682 3,814 
Guangdong 6,600  2,840  3,498  4,113  150 -765 3,809 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,668  3,316  150  202  2,734 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,670  3,316  150  204  2,742 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,706  3,316  150  240  2,716 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,647  3,316  150  181  2,722 
Guangdong 6,600  2,840  3,564  3,316  150  98  2,716 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,538  3,198  150  190  2,750 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,540  3,198  150  192  2,757 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,574  3,198  150  226  2,734 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,515  3,198  150  167  2,739 
Guangdong 6,600  2,840  3,432  3,198  150  84  2,734 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,570  3,500  150  -80  3,091 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,573  3,500  150  -78  3,098 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,607  3,500  150  -43  3,075 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,079 
Guangdong 6,600  2,840  3,465  3,500  150  -185  3,075 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,680  3,140  3,581  3,440  160  -19  3,164 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,530  2,990  3,437  3,560  160  -283  3,344 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,440  3,580  160  -300  3,375 
Boxing, Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,472  3,600  160  -288  3,380 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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