Cofeed:China Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates (Dec, 2019)

2019-12-10 www.cofeed.com

Domestic Soybean Supply & Demand Estimates (Crop year: Oct.-Sept; 0’000 tonnes)
Item/Year	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19		2019/20
	Est.	Est.	Est.	Nov. Proj.	Dec. Proj.	Nov. Proj.	Dec. Proj.
Beginning Stocks	1,350	1294	1384	1559	1559	1249	1249
Domestic Production	1,090	1265	1485	1500	1500	1600	1600
Imports	8,317	9220	9411	8280	8280	8700	8700
Total Supply	10,757	11779	12280	11339	11339	11549	11549

Crush	8,140	8800	8986	8500	8500	8600	8600
Domestic	190	137	200	210	210	230	230
Imported	7,950	8663	8786	8290	8290	8370	8370
Exports	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Seeds	50	60	70	75	75	75	75
Food & Industrial Consumption	1,258	1520	1650	1500	1500	1580	1580
Total Use	9,463	10395	10721	10090	10090	10270	10270

Ending Stocks	1,294	1384	1559	1249	1249	1279	1279
Stock-to-use Ratio	13.72%	13.31%	14.54%	12.38%	12.38%	12.45%	12.45%

Imported Soybean Supply & Demand Estimates (0’000 tonnes)
Year	Est.	Beginning Stocks	Import &delivery from reserves	reserve grain rotation and warehousing	Total Supply	imported soybean for crushing	Food & Extruded	Total Use	Ending Stocks
2017	Jan	584	751		1335	665	65	730	605
	Feb	605	570		1175	556	11	567	608
	Mar	608	607		1215	650	14	664	551
	Apr	551	786		1337	708	43	751	586
	May	586	914		1500	788	70	858	642
	Jun	642	854		1496	746	64	810	686
	Jul	686	881		1567	785	46	831	736
	Aug	736	781		1517	761	20	781	736
	Sept	736	759		1495	814	26	840	655
	Oct	655	678		1333	741	30	771	562
	Nov	562	906		1468	798	63	861	607
	Dec	607	883		1490	852	23	875	615
2018	Jan	615	848		1463	818	45	863	600
	Feb	600	564		1164	415	40	455	709
	Mar	709	566		1275	710	10	720	555
	Apr	555	771		1326	696	15	711	615
	May	615	912		1527	689	68	757	770
	Jun	770	870		1640	746	70	816	824
	Jul	824	797		1621	741	50	791	830
	Aug	830	855		1685	810	16	826	859
	Sept	859	790		1649	770	10	780	869
	Oct	869	692		1561	782	10	792	769
	Nov	769	634		1403	695	10	705	698
	Dec	698	690		1388	733	10	743	645
2019	Jan	645	650		1295	687	10	697	598
	Feb	598	400		998	364	54	418	580
	Mar	580	602	-20	1162	688	24	712	450
	Apr	450	811	-30	1231	700	21	721	510
	May	510	800	0	1310	762	12	774	536
	Jun	536	795	-26	1305	730	50	780	525
	Jul	525	930	-89	1366	661	47	708	658
	Aug	658	862	-108	1412	748	22	770	642
	Sept	642	797	-80	1349	740	50	790	559
	Oct	559	740	-120	1179	660	65	725	454
	Nov	454	790	-70	1174	693	46	739	435
	Dec	435	940	-65	1310	740	65	805	505
2020	Jan	505	710	-60	1155	560	40	600	555
	Feb	555	480	0	1035	600	20	625	410
	Mar	410	610	0	1020	670	30	700	320
	Apr	320	750	0	1070	705	20	725	345
	May	345	800	0	1145	750	25	775	370
	Jun	370	790	0	1160	735	30	765	395
	Jul	395	780	0	1175	720	30	750	425
	Aug	425	838	0	1263	787	28	815	448
	Sept	448	770	0	1218	750	15	765	453

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