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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/12/2019

2019-12-11 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,607  4,171  150 -714 3,894 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,605  4,171  150 -716 3,906 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,640  4,171  150 -681 3,882 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,581  4,171  150 -740 3,887 
Guangdong 6,600  2,800  3,466  4,171  150 -855 3,882 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,607  4,116  150 -659 3,825 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,605  4,116  150 -661 3,837 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,640  4,116  150 -626 3,813 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,581  4,116  150 -685 3,817 
Guangdong 6,600  2,800  3,466  4,116  150 -800 3,813 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,672  3,330  150  192  2,747 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,670  3,330  150  190  2,759 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,706  3,330  150  226  2,734 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,647  3,330  150  167  2,739 
Guangdong 6,600  2,800  3,532  3,330  150  52  2,734 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,541  3,208  150  183  2,758 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,540  3,208  150  182  2,770 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,574  3,208  150  216  2,747 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,515  3,208  150  157  2,751 
Guangdong 6,600  2,800  3,400  3,208  150  42  2,747 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,574  3,500  150  -76  3,086 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,573  3,500  150  -78  3,098 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,607  3,500  150  -43  3,075 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,950  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,079 
Guangdong 6,600  2,800  3,433  3,500  150  -217  3,075 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,700  3,140  3,584  3,440  160  -16  3,160 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  2,990  3,440  3,560  160  -280  3,340 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,000  3,440  3,580  160  -300  3,375 
Boxing, Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,472  3,600  160  -288  3,380 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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