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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/12/2019

2019-12-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,604  4,138  150 -684 3,845 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,591  4,138  150 -697 3,862 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,010  3,634  4,138  150 -654 3,838 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,860  3,510  4,138  150 -778 3,845 
Guangdong 6,630  2,780  3,456  4,138  150 -832 3,833 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,604  4,038  150 -584 3,719 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,591  4,038  150 -597 3,736 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,010  3,634  4,038  150 -554 3,712 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,860  3,510  4,038  150 -678 3,719 
Guangdong 6,630  2,780  3,456  4,038  150 -732 3,707 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,670  3,284  150  236  2,681 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,656  3,284  150  222  2,699 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,010  3,700  3,284  150  266  2,673 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,860  3,575  3,284  150  141  2,681 
Guangdong 6,630  2,780  3,522  3,284  150  88  2,668 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,539  3,241  150  148  2,793 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,526  3,241  150  135  2,809 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,010  3,568  3,241  150  177  2,786 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,860  3,444  3,241  150  53  2,793 
Guangdong 6,630  2,780  3,390  3,241  150  -1  2,782 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,572  3,500  150  -79  3,079 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,559  3,500  150  -91  3,096 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,010  3,601  3,500  150  -49  3,072 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,860  3,477  3,500  150  -173  3,079 
Guangdong 6,630  2,780  3,423  3,500  150  -227  3,068 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,730  3,130  3,581  3,440  160  -19  3,154 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  2,980  3,437  3,560  160  -283  3,334 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,510  2,980  3,426  3,580  160  -314  3,373 
Boxing, Shandong 6,600  3,020  3,472  3,600  160  -288  3,380 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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