Today (Dec. 12), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: CONAB, Brazil's national food supply and agricultural statistics agency, raised its soybean production estimates by 200,000 tonnes to 121.1 million tonnes, and there was a lack of new progress in the phase 1 trade deal between China and the United States. Investors booked profits and closed positions after 6 consecutive rises, so US soybean futures closed with losses last night. Meal futures also open lower to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop 10-30 yuan/tonne. Specifically, the price settles at 2,780-2,960 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2,960, Shandong 2,970-2,980, Jiangsu 2,840-2,900, Dongguan 2,780-2,820, and Guangxi 2,820-2,840, Fujian 2,870-2,900.) Due to good crush margins for imported soybeans on the DCE, Chinese importers bought about 21 cargoes or 1.26 mln tonnes of US soybeans this week. Mills are selling at full swing the Jan-May contracts and Jun-Sept contracts upon negative basis. Besides, there is slack demand from aquaculture in south China entering winter, in addition to huge imports of alternative meals arriving at ports. All these factors are weighing down meal prices. But soybean meal stocks still stay at a relatively low level, coupled with rising hog and sow amount and upcoming festival demand, so there is little space for price declines. Short-term soybean meal market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range and to go upward with the start of the festival replenishment. Buyers are suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment, or to replenish in batches upon the -30 basis. Participants can wait to see whether China and the US can strike the phase 1 deal before the December 15 tariffs. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan/tonne at 2,220-2,320 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,300, down 20; Guangdong 2,220; Fujian not offered). China keeps purchasing imported soybeans due to the good crush margin of futures, and soybean meal inventory continues to increase as the demand from aquaculture in South China has entered into a slack season. Thus, the price rapeseed meal is restrained. But the supply of rapeseed gets tight amid the unclear relations between China and Canada, which leads the operation rate to stay at a low level. In consequence, oil mills prop up prices, dampening the price declines of rapeseed meal in a short term. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 8,900-9,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,200-9,600 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 9,600-10,00 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 10,000-10,300yuan/tonne. Traders are going short due to the uncertain existence of a historical high fishing quota set by the Peruvian government, and the demand for fishmeal remains low due to the African swine fever; hence, fishmeal prices have little upward space. But fish catches are not in good state in Peru, and there is festival demand in China with New Year’s Day around the corner, which have given some support to the market. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady to strengthen in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 98,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,130 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,360 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with individual declines of 50 yuan/tonne today. The market of cottonseed meal is supported as cottonseed price remains high and fluctuate strongly; oil mills in some regions halt the operation. However, the rises of meals prices are also depressed by poor demand affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, lack of rigid demand under a slack season of aquaculture in South China. Furthermore, meals on DCE today fall back with low opens, and spot soybean meal slips by 10-30 yuan/tonne. It is expected that short-term cottonseed meal may fluctuate at a narrow range. If traders stock up cottonseed meal before Spring Festival, it may be hopeful to rally mildly. Soybean meal has yet to stop declining, which may weigh down cottonseed meal. Buyers can wait and see.