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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 13/12/2019

2019-12-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,601  4,117  150 -666 3,783 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,573  4,117  150 -695 3,809 
Costal Shandong 6,630  3,000  3,630  4,117  150 -637 3,807 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,840  3,517  4,117  150 -750 3,790 
Guangdong 6,770  2,740  3,451  4,117  150 -816 3,773 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,601  4,018  150 -567 3,657 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,573  4,018  150 -596 3,684 
Costal Shandong 6,630  3,000  3,630  4,018  150 -538 3,681 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,840  3,517  4,018  150 -651 3,665 
Guangdong 6,770  2,740  3,451  4,018  150 -717 3,648 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,669  3,270  150  249  2,625 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,639  3,270  150  219  2,653 
Costal Shandong 6,630  3,000  3,696  3,270  150  276  2,651 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,840  3,584  3,270  150  164  2,633 
Guangdong 6,770  2,740  3,519  3,270  150  99  2,615 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,534  3,224  150  160  2,737 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,506  3,224  150  132  2,763 
Costal Shandong 6,630  3,000  3,563  3,224  150  189  2,760 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,840  3,450  3,224  150  76  2,744 
Guangdong 6,770  2,740  3,383  3,224  150  9  2,728 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,568  3,500  150  -82  3,044 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,539  3,500  150  -111  3,070 
Costal Shandong 6,630  3,000  3,597  3,500  150  -53  3,068 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,840  3,483  3,500  150  -167  3,051 
Guangdong 6,770  2,740  3,417  3,500  150  -233  3,035 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,880  3,090  3,573  3,440  160  -27  3,124 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,730  2,940  3,429  3,560  160  -291  3,304 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,620  2,930  3,403  3,580  160  -337  3,351 
Boxing, Shandong 6,720  2,990  3,467  3,600  160  -293  3,356 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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