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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 16/12/2019

2019-12-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,612  4,155  150 -693 3,848 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,553  4,155  150 -752 3,862 
Costal Shandong 6,680  2,970  3,616  4,155  150 -690 3,843 
Jiangsu 6,720  2,830  3,513  4,155  150 -793 3,833 
Guangdong 6,720  2,750  3,449  4,155  150 -856 3,833 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,612  4,052  150 -590 3,717 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,553  4,052  150 -649 3,732 
Costal Shandong 6,680  2,970  3,616  4,052  150 -587 3,712 
Jiangsu 6,720  2,830  3,513  4,052  150 -690 3,703 
Guangdong 6,720  2,750  3,449  4,052  150 -753 3,703 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,678  3,296  150  232  2,676 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,619  3,296  150  173  2,691 
Costal Shandong 6,680  2,970  3,682  3,296  150  236  2,671 
Jiangsu 6,720  2,830  3,580  3,296  150  134  2,661 
Guangdong 6,720  2,750  3,517  3,296  150  71  2,661 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,545  3,251  150  144  2,788 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,487  3,251  150  86  2,801 
Costal Shandong 6,680  2,970  3,549  3,251  150  148  2,783 
Jiangsu 6,720  2,830  3,445  3,251  150  44  2,774 
Guangdong 6,720  2,750  3,382  3,251  150  -19  2,774 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,578  3,500  150  -72  3,061 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,520  3,500  150  -130  3,075 
Costal Shandong 6,680  2,970  3,582  3,500  150  -68  3,056 
Jiangsu 6,720  2,830  3,479  3,500  150  -171  3,047 
Guangdong 6,720  2,750  3,416  3,500  150  -234  3,047 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,810  3,120  3,586  3,440  160  -14  3,138 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,660  2,970  3,442  3,560  160  -278  3,318 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  2,910  3,384  3,580  160  -356  3,355 
Boxing, Shandong 6,720  2,970  3,451  3,600  160  -309  3,356 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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