Today (Dec. 16), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are stable today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,300 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports and traders are in fair shipments, which is good to the market. However, China and the United States both officially confirmed last Friday that they had agreed on the text of a phase one economic and trade agreement. China commits to make a substantial increase in purchases of US agricultural commodities, and the US will fulfill its commitment of rolling back additional tariffs on Chinese products in phases to make a shift to lower down tariff rates. China will probably import more US soybeans, which will be negative to domestic markets. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some rises of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg. There is not much spot cottonseed available for sale on the market and the supply is tight. Besides, the freight from Xinjiang to inland remains high for a shortage of vehicles. Thus, these factors boost the cottonseed market. However, factories have little shipping quantity of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal. Meanwhile, China and U.S. have agreed on the text of phase one trade deal, which will sharply increase import of U.S. agricultural products. And oil mills are more wary of purchasing cottonseed. Therefore, the price rises of cottonseed are curbed by these factors. It is predicted that the overall cottonseed will continue trending up with fluctuations. And Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.

Summary: US soybean rose last Friday as China and the US agreed on a phase one economic and trade deal. But on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, soybean oil fluctuates to adjust due to the bearish influence of the trade detente, and palm oil moderately falls on profit taking and rising Malaysian ringgit. In the spot markets, soybean oil steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne and palm oil declines by 30-90 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading. Soybean oil and palm oil post different trends today, as the former remains resilient due to its own positive fundamentals and the latter is mainly subject to foreign markets and technical factors. In addition to a slight increase in soybean crush and ongoing festival demand, oil mills are in fair shipments. In this case, soybean oil stocks fell further by 4.6% to 950,000 tonnes as of last Friday, and buyers are still queuing up for picking up goods in some regions. In addition, investors are still gobbling up a reduction in palm oil output in Southeast Asia. Short-term oil market is predicted to have little downside space and to keep strengthening with festival demand underway. However, palm oil exports fell further by 18.6% in Malaysia in the first half of this month, which is bearish to BMD. And after the signing of a trade deal officially, China will substantially increase imports of agricultural products from the United States, including soybean, corn, sorghum, barley, wheat, DDGs, pork and poultry meat. In addition, imported soybean crush is quite profitable at present. These will all add to fluctuations in the market. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,680-6,860 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, partially fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,680-6,690, Rizhao traders 6,780, Zhangjiagang traders 6,860, and Guangzhou mills 6,820 and traders 6,760). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,970-6,150 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a decline of 30-90 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,140-6,150, down 30; Rizhao traders 6,130, down 90; Zhangjiagang traders 6,080, down 50; Guangzhou traders 5,970, down 50; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 50-100 yuan at 7,580-7,820 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,580, down 50; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,820, down 100.) Soybean imports from the US are expected to substantially increase with the signing of the trade deal, and mills are scooping up on Brazilian soybeans due to good crush margins on the DCE; hence, soybean imports arriving at ports may exceed the forecast. In addition, due to the arrival of crude rapeseed oil at ports, its stocks increased by 0.8% to 349,000 tonnes as of last Friday. And palm oil futures on the DCE also fall today on a bigger decline in Malaysian exports. Therefore, rapeseed oil market has been curbed. But mills now have low rapeseed stocks available amid tensions between China and Canada, and speculators are still gobbling up a reduction in palm oil output. Overall, rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep strengthening, but it is suggested to keep a lookout for fluctuations in the short term. Buyers can stay on the sidelines at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-150 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed remains high, and factories in some regions halt the operation. Hence, cottonseed oil market is bolstered. Due to the limited downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil, some manufacturers have not many actual transactions, resulting in the limited upward space of cottonseed oil. It is expected that short-term cottonseed oil may keep strong with fluctuations. Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.