Today (Dec. 16), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: As China and the US agreed on a phase-one trade deal, US soybeans rose last Friday and move further higher to 915 cents in electronic trading today. It stands to reason that domestic meal prices would fall on a trade deal, but domestic market seems to have been immune to it after witnessing mixed signals in negotiations for nearly two years. And especially after having digested the influence late last week, meal futures buck the trend to edge higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,750-2,930 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2,920, Shandong 2,885-2,930, Jiangsu 2,810-2,820, Dongguan 2,740-2,750, and Guangxi 2,760-2,800, Fujian 2,850-2,870.) Following the implementation of the trade deal, China will substantially increase imports of agricultural products from the United States, including soybean, corn, sorghum, barley, wheat, DDGs, pork and poultry meat. In addition, with good gross crush margins for imported soybeans on the DCE, mills are actively signing forward contracts upon negative basis to book profits. Meanwhile, there is now slack demand from aquaculture entering winter, and huge imports of alternative meals are arriving at domestic ports recently. Besides, mills will continue to pick up operation rates in the coming two weeks with huge soybean imports arriving in December. All these factors are weighing down prices. However, along with rising hog and sow amount under handsome breeding margins and the upcoming festival demand, the consumption speed is also accelerating, so that soybean meal stocks fell 7% weekly to 392,000 tonnes last Friday. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to remain range-bound and to post moderate rises with higher festival demand. Buyers are suggested to make replenishment in batch upon negative basis. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with slight rises in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,210-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,300, steady; Guangdong 2,210; Fujian not offered). It shows no sign of the tensions between China and Canada easing, and there is a widespread shortage of rapeseed for crush. Last week, rapeseed inventory in coastal areas down to 9,000 tonnes, a decrease of 21% week on week. Thus, oil mills tend to prop up prices. But with the detente in U.S.-China relations, there will be a huge increase in soybeans imports later period. Moreover, the import of DDGS which can directly replace the rapeseed meal might also be resumed. And the demand for meals is affected by an off season of aquaculture in South China. In consequence, the price rises of rapeseed meal are curbed by these factors. So buyers who have replenished inventory already can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices all post rises today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,200-9,500 yuan/tonne, a rise of 200-300 yuan/tonne from last Friday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne, a rise of 200-300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,000-10,100 yuan/tonne, a rise of 200-300 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne, a rise of 300-400 yuan/tonne. Domestic traders have been propping up prices buoyed by ongoing poor fish catches in Peru, so fishmeal market moves significantly higher today. But in addition to the bearish influence of historical high quotas set by the Peruvian government, the demand for fishmeal is limited subject to the African swine fever, so fishmeal market has been under pressure. Overall, fishmeal market will hopefully continue to go strengthening in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 99,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,130 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and higher by 20 USD at 1,400 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content higher by 20 USD at 1,380 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 20-50 yuan/tonne today. The market of cottonseed meal is supported as cottonseed price remains high; oil mills in some regions halt the operation. However, the demand affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is poor, and demand from aquaculture in South China has entered into a slack season. Furthermore, feed factories have yet to start the stockpiling in New Year’s Day, and the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. Accordingly, all the factors bear the market. It is expected that short-term cottonseed meal may fluctuate at a narrow range. If the peak season for stocking up cottonseed meal starts before the Spring Festival, it may be hopeful to rally mildly. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.