Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. However, there is renewed hope on a trade deal between China and the United States, and if a deal is reached, China is likely to import more US soybeans. In addition, CONAB, Brazil's national food supply and agricultural statistics agency, raised its soybean production estimates for 2019-20 by 200,000 tonnes to 121.1 million tonnes. With a prospect of abundant harvests in Brazil and huge global supply, imported soybean prices in domestic markets is under pressure. In a hybrid of a bull and a bear, the distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to keep firm in the near term.

Crush: This week (Dec. 7-13), with a slight rise in operation rates, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,667,000 tonnes (meal 1,316,930 tonnes and oil 316,730 tonnes), up 14,400 tonnes, or 0.87%, from 1,652,600 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 45.72%, up 0.40 percentage points from 45.32% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 1.77 mln tonnes next week and to 1.82 mln tonnes that following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 17,035,200 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,877,785 tonnes, or 9.92%, from 18,912,985  tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 79,076,615 tonnes, down 5,266,165 tonnes, or 6.24%, from 84,342,780 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to increase slightly this week. In the week as of December 13th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,328,600 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 8,000 tonnes by 0.24% from 3,320,600 tonnes last week yet down by 41.94% from 5,733,700 tonnes of the same period last year. With huge imports arriving at ports in December, the stocks will probably post modest rises later.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 30 cargoes with 1.946 mln tonnes this week, a total of 51 cargoes with 3.314 mln tonnes for December so far. The import is predicted to be 144 cargoes with 9.349 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January, 4.8 mln tonnes for February, and 4.9 mln tonnes for March. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Dec. 9-13), domestic soybean meal prices continue to fall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 50-110 yuan/tonne at 2,730-2,910 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks fall this week, as downstream buyers quicken their pace to pick up goods in preparation for the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival. In the week as of December 13th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 392,000 tonnes, down 30,900 tonnes by 7.31% from 422,900 tonnes last week and down by 54.88% from 943,400 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. But soybean crush is expected to go up to 1.77 mln tonnes and 1.82 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, which will help limit declines in soybean meal stocks.

Price: This week (Dec. 9-13), domestic soybean oil prices move further higher As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,700-6,800 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up by 100-210 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue to fall this week as mills have just slightly picked up operation rates while they have been in fair shipments. In the week as of Dec. 13th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 950,450 tonnes, down 45,900 tonnes by 4.61% from 996,350 tonnes last week, down 191,550 tonnes by 16.77% from 1,142,000 tonnes last month, and down 755,050 tonnes by 44.27% from 1,705,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,249,300 tonnes. There is a total of 1,567,800 tonnes in soybean oil contracts to be fulfilled domestically, so soybean oil stocks will see a rundown in later period.