Today (Dec. 17), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rallied on Monday on a positive prospect for improving exports, as China and the US agreed on a phase-one trade deal and Argentine government announced to hike export tax on soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal to 30% from 25%. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, the most-active meal contracts hover below the previous close, in spite of slight rises. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,740-2,920 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2,920, Shandong 2,880-2,900, Jiangsu 2,810-2,820, Dongguan 2,740-2,750, and Guangxi 2,760-2,780, Fujian 2,840-2,860.) After signing the trade deal, China will substantially boost imports such as soybean, sorghum, barley and DDGs from the United States. Moreover, mills are actively signing forward contracts upon negative basis to book profits due to good gross crush margins for imported soybeans on the DCE, and as the African swine fever has broken out again in some areas. Meanwhile, alternative meals are arriving at southern ports in huge quantities, especially sunflower meal. In addition, funds are still selling meals to increase oil positions due to rising prices. All these factors are weighing down prices. However, along with rising hog and sow amount under handsome breeding margins and the upcoming festival demand, the consumption speed is also accelerating, so that soybean meal stocks fell 7% weekly to 392,000 tonnes last Friday.  Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to remain range-bound, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price keeps stable today, of which it settles at 2,210-2,300 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,300; Guangdong 2,210; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is tightening amid tensions between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oil mills stays at a low level. In consequence, the stock of rapeseed meal is tight, and oil mills have a strong will to raise prices. After the trade deal implementing, China will significantly increase imports of U.S. agricultural products. And if China resumes large imports of U.S. DDGS, the rapeseed meal which can be replaced by it will be the first to bear the brunt. In addition, imported mixed meals arrive at ports intensively, especially sunflower meal. At Guangzhou port, Ukrainian sunflower meal is only priced at 1,870 yuan/tonne, striking the market share of rapeseed meal. Furthermore, as the gross crush margins of imported soybeans are considerable and aquaculture has faded, rapeseed meal prices are weak in rising. Thus, short-term market is predicted to keep fluctuating narrowly. So buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady to see a partial rise of 100 yuan/tonne today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,200-9,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,000-10,300 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne. As 80% are still juvenile fishes, Peruvian production department is asked to clearly stop fishing for the purpose of protecting fish resources, which has buoyed spot fishmeal market in China. But in addition to the bearish influence of historical high quotas set by the Peruvian government, the demand for fishmeal is limited subject to the African swine fever, so fishmeal market has been under pressure. Overall, fishmeal market will hopefully continue to go strengthening in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 99,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,130 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and higher by 30 USD at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content higher by 30 USD at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable and individually declines by 50 yuan/tonne today. The demand affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is poor, and demand from aquaculture in South China has entered into a slack season. Furthermore, feed factories have yet to start the stockpiling in New Year’s Day, and the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. And spot soybean meal steadily dips by 10-20 yuan/tonne today. Accordingly, all the factors bear the market. However, cottonseed price remains high, and most oil mills offer firmly due to the half of operation in some regions. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal market is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range. And it may rally mildly which is possible when the peak season for stocking up goods starts before the Spring Festival. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.