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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 18/12/2019

2019-12-18 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,641  4,236  150 -746 3,924 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,568  4,236  150 -818 3,936 
Costal Shandong 6,850  2,920  3,608  4,236  150 -778 3,904 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,830  3,537  4,236  150 -849 3,904 
Guangdong 6,870  2,740  3,470  4,236  150 -916 3,900 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,641  4,132  150 -642 3,792 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,568  4,132  150 -714 3,804 
Costal Shandong 6,850  2,920  3,608  4,132  150 -674 3,773 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,830  3,537  4,132  150 -745 3,773 
Guangdong 6,870  2,740  3,470  4,132  150 -812 3,768 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,708  3,358  150  200  2,727 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,635  3,358  150  127  2,739 
Costal Shandong 6,850  2,920  3,677  3,358  150  169  2,706 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,830  3,606  3,358  150  98  2,706 
Guangdong 6,870  2,740  3,539  3,358  150  31  2,701 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,573  3,314  150  109  2,842 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,501  3,314  150  37  2,854 
Costal Shandong 6,850  2,920  3,540  3,314  150  76  2,824 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,830  3,469  3,314  150  5  2,824 
Guangdong 6,870  2,740  3,401  3,314  150  -63  2,819 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,607  3,500  150  -43  3,035 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,534  3,500  150  -116  3,047 
Costal Shandong 6,850  2,920  3,574  3,500  150  -76  3,016 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,830  3,503  3,500  150  -147  3,016 
Guangdong 6,870  2,740  3,436  3,500  150  -214  3,011 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,920  3,130  3,611  3,440  160  11  3,116 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,980  3,467  3,560  160  -253  3,296 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,900  3,395  3,580  160  -345  3,331 
Boxing, Shandong 6,850  2,930  3,440  3,600  160  -320  3,330 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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