Today (Dec. 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The most-active CBOT soybean oil hit its highest since January 2018, the market expected an improving export prospect in US soybeans, and Argentine government hiked export tax on agricultural products, so US soybean futures closed further higher last night. But subject to funds buying up on oils futures, meal futures only inch a little bit higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,740-2,900 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2,900, Shandong 2,870-2,900, Jiangsu 2,800-2,820, Dongguan 2,740-2,750, and Guangxi 2,760-2,770, Fujian 2,830-2,860.) Once the trade deal is signed, China is expected to substantially increase imports from the US such as soybeans, sorghum, barley and DDGs. Moreover, mills are actively signing forward contracts upon negative basis to book profits due to good gross crush margins for imported soybeans on the DCE, and as the African swine fever has broken out again in some areas. Meanwhile, alternative meals are arriving at southern ports in huge quantities, especially sunflower meal. All these factors are weighing down prices. However, along with rising hog and sow amount under handsome breeding margins and the upcoming festival demand, the consumption speed is also accelerating, so that soybean meal stocks fell 7% weekly to 392,000 tonnes last Friday.  Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to remain range-bound, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises slightly in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,200-2,320 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,300; Guangdong 2,210; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so the operation rate stays at a low level, and oil mills prop up prices. After the signing of phase one trade deal, China will substantially increase the import of soybeans, sorghum, barley and DDGS from U.S. And the crush margin of imported soybeans futures is good, but the African swine fever relapses in some regions. Moreover, imported mixed meals arrive at Southern ports intensively, especially sunflower meal, which captures market share of rapeseed meal. However, aquaculture has faded, and rapeseed meal price is weak in going up. Therefore, short-term market is predicted to keep fluctuating at a narrow range. So buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady to see some further rises today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,300-9,600 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 100-300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,000-10,400 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 100 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 10,400-10,800 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 100 yuan/tonne. As 80% are still juvenile fishes, Peruvian production department is asked to clearly stop fishing for the purpose of protecting fish resources, which has buoyed spot fishmeal market in China. Therefore, traders are encouraged to quote further higher today. But in addition to the bearish influence of historical high quotas set by the Peruvian government, the demand for fishmeal is limited subject to the African swine fever, so fishmeal market has been under pressure. Overall, fishmeal market will hopefully continue to go strengthening in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 99,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted higher by 100 USD at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and higher by 100 USD at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 20-30 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed is still high, and there is a sign that feed factories in some regions will start the stockpiling in New Year’s Day. Both factors are supporting the market of cottonseed meal. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow, which restricts the demand. Moreover, demand from aquaculture is also in an off season, so the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. And spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-20 yuan/tonne. In consequence, the market of cottonseed meal is dragged down by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in a short term. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.