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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 19/12/2019

2019-12-19 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,593  4,268  150 -825 3,964 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,590  4,268  150 -828 3,988 
Costal Shandong 6,840  2,910  3,599  4,268  150 -820 3,947 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,810  3,521  4,268  150 -897 3,945 
Guangdong 6,870  2,720  3,454  4,268  150 -964 3,940 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,593  4,176  150 -733 3,848 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,590  4,176  150 -736 3,872 
Costal Shandong 6,840  2,910  3,599  4,176  150 -728 3,831 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,810  3,521  4,176  150 -805 3,828 
Guangdong 6,870  2,720  3,454  4,176  150 -872 3,824 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,661  3,311  150  200  2,667 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,657  3,311  150  196  2,692 
Costal Shandong 6,840  2,910  3,667  3,311  150  206  2,649 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,810  3,590  3,311  150  129  2,647 
Guangdong 6,870  2,720  3,523  3,311  150  62  2,642 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,525  3,317  150  58  2,846 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,523  3,317  150  56  2,869 
Costal Shandong 6,840  2,910  3,530  3,317  150  63  2,830 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,810  3,453  3,317  150  -14  2,828 
Guangdong 6,870  2,720  3,385  3,317  150  -82  2,823 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,559  3,500  150  -91  3,035 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,557  3,500  150  -93  3,058 
Costal Shandong 6,840  2,910  3,564  3,500  150  -86  3,018 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,810  3,487  3,500  150  -163  3,016 
Guangdong 6,870  2,720  3,420  3,500  150  -230  3,011 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,920  3,070  3,563  3,440  160  -37  3,116 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,920  3,419  3,560  160  -301  3,296 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,940  3,419  3,580  160  -321  3,341 
Boxing, Shandong 6,850  2,910  3,424  3,600  160  -336  3,330 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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