Today (Dec. 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The market was wary about specific articles of a phase-one deal agreed upon by China and the United States, in addition to expectations of abundant soybean harvests in Brazil, so US soybean closed lower last night. Meal futures also move marginally lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,720-2,890 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2,890, Shandong 2,850-2,880, Jiangsu 2,780-2,800, Dongguan 2,720-2,730, and Guangxi 2,740-2,760, Fujian 2,810-2,840.) China will boost US soybean imports substantially after signing the trade deal. The African swine fever, which has cut demand for meals, has been reported again. And a huge quantity of alternative meal imports have been arriving at southern ports, especially sunflower meal in December. As a result, meal prices in Guangdong and Guangxi have stayed at the lowest level in the country, thus dragging down domestic soybean meal market. But soybean crush margins for near-month cargoes have sharply declined, and pig feed consumption is rising due to higher live hog and sow stocks under handsome breeding margins. Merely, the market has yet welcomed the festival demand, so there is a lack of material bullish factors in the market. Overall, soybean meal has little upward impetus in the short term and may maintain narrow and weak fluctuations. Buyers can wait or buy on immediate demand. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,190-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,270; Guangdong 2,190; Fujian not offered). China will increase the imports of U.S. soybeans after the signing of phase-one trade deal, resulting in higher-than-expected soybean arrivals at ports later period. And a large amount of sunflower meal arrives at ports, which leads rapeseed meal to suffer greater impact. Moreover, the recovery of hog breeding is affected by recurrence of African swine fever in some regions. More than that, aquaculture in South China has entered into an off season. Accordingly, the price of rapeseed is dampened by these factors. However, the issues between China and Canada remain to be resolved, so the supply of rapeseed is still tight, which will limit price declines of short-term rapeseed meal. So buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady to see a further rise of 300 yuan/tonne today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,300-9,600 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,000-10,400 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 10,400-10,800 yuan/tonne. As 80% are still juvenile fishes, Peruvian production department is asked to clearly stop fishing for the purpose of protecting fish resources, which has buoyed spot fishmeal market in China. Therefore, traders are stalling sales for higher prices. But the demand for fishmeal is slack now, and with African swine fever lingering, farmers have little interest in making replenishment, so the demand goes even lower. Overall, fishmeal market will hopefully continue to go strengthening in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 99,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal stays stable today. The price of cottonseed is still high, and there is a sign that feed factories in some regions will start the stockpiling in New Year’s Day. Both factors are supporting the market of cottonseed meal. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow, which restricts the demand. Moreover, demand from aquaculture is also in an off season, so the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. And meals on DCE today edges down, and spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-20 yuan/tonne. In consequence, the market of cottonseed meal is dragged down by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in a short term. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.