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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 20/12/2019

2019-12-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,581  4,260  150 -829 3,959 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,574  4,260  150 -836 3,978 
Costal Shandong 6,870  2,900  3,596  4,260  150 -814 3,930 
Jiangsu 6,900  2,770  3,499  4,260  150 -911 3,923 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,469  4,260  150 -941 3,911 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,581  4,168  150 -737 3,842 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,574  4,168  150 -744 3,862 
Costal Shandong 6,870  2,900  3,596  4,168  150 -722 3,814 
Jiangsu 6,900  2,770  3,499  4,168  150 -819 3,806 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,469  4,168  150 -849 3,794 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,649  3,305  150  194  2,665 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,641  3,305  150  186  2,685 
Costal Shandong 6,870  2,900  3,665  3,305  150  210  2,634 
Jiangsu 6,900  2,770  3,568  3,305  150  113  2,627 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,539  3,305  150  84  2,614 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,514  3,312  150  52  2,844 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,507  3,312  150  45  2,863 
Costal Shandong 6,870  2,900  3,528  3,312  150  66  2,817 
Jiangsu 6,900  2,770  3,430  3,312  150  -32  2,810 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,400  3,312  150  -62  2,799 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,040 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,541  3,500  150  -109  3,058 
Costal Shandong 6,870  2,900  3,562  3,500  150  -88  3,011 
Jiangsu 6,900  2,770  3,465  3,500  150  -185  3,004 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,435  3,500  150  -215  2,993 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,900  3,060  3,552  3,440  160  -48  3,120 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,750  2,910  3,408  3,560  160  -312  3,300 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,670  2,920  3,403  3,580  160  -337  3,341 
Boxing, Shandong 6,850  2,900  3,416  3,600  160  -344  3,330 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.