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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 23/12/2019

2019-12-23 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,582  4,258  150 -826 3,976 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,580  4,258  150 -828 3,968 
Costal Shandong 6,940  2,980  3,673  4,258  150 -735 3,911 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,770  3,490  4,258  150 -918 3,932 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,469  4,258  150 -939 3,908 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,582  4,181  150 -749 3,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,580  4,181  150 -751 3,871 
Costal Shandong 6,940  2,980  3,673  4,181  150 -658 3,813 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,770  3,490  4,181  150 -841 3,835 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,469  4,181  150 -862 3,811 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,649  3,315  150  184  2,697 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,647  3,315  150  182  2,690 
Costal Shandong 6,940  2,980  3,742  3,315  150  277  2,629 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,770  3,558  3,315  150  93  2,652 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,539  3,315  150  74  2,627 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,515  3,321  150  44  2,874 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,513  3,321  150  42  2,867 
Costal Shandong 6,940  2,980  3,603  3,321  150  132  2,812 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,770  3,421  3,321  150  -50  2,833 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,400  3,321  150  -71  2,810 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,549  3,500  150  -101  3,058 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,546  3,500  150  -104  3,051 
Costal Shandong 6,940  2,980  3,638  3,500  150  -12  2,995 
Jiangsu 6,850  2,770  3,456  3,500  150  -194  3,016 
Guangdong 6,950  2,720  3,435  3,500  150  -215  2,993 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,820  3,080  3,555  3,440  160  -45  3,136 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,670  2,930  3,411  3,560  160  -309  3,316 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  2,920  3,408  3,580  160  -332  3,335 
Boxing, Shandong 6,850  2,900  3,416  3,600  160  -344  3,330 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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