According to Cofeed, on the week as of December 20th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

This week (Dec. 14-20), with a further rise in operation rates, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,856,500 tonnes (meal 1,466,635 tonnes and oil 352,735 tonnes), up 189,500 tonnes or 11.36% from 1,667,000 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 50.91%, up 5.19 percentage points from 45.72% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the upward trend to 1.88 mln tonnes next week and to 1.90 mln tonnes that following week. 

 

Despite rising operation rates, soybean oil stocks still decline further with festival demand for small packing oils underway and as several mills still have a line of buyers waiting for picking up goods. In the week as of Dec. 20th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 900,900 tonnes, down 49,550 tonnes by 5.21% from 950,450 tonnes last week, down 212,400 tonnes by 19.08% from 1,113,300 tonnes last month, and down 754,100 tonnes by 45.56% from 1,655,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,225,200 tonnes. There is a total of 1,624,500 tonnes in soybean oil contracts to be fulfilled domestically, so soybean oil stocks will see a rundown in later period. But as mills continue to raise operation rates to the high level, soybean oil stocks will follow to slow down declines. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years