Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. However, China is likely to import more US soybeans as the phase-one trade deal is reached. Meanwhile, soybean planting in Brazil has been 96% completed, and soybean production is predicted to hit of record high of 120.7 million tonnes in 2019/20, according to AgRural. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to keep firm in the near term.

Crush: This week (Dec. 14-20), with a further rise in operation rates, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,856,500 tonnes (meal 1,466,635 tonnes and oil 352,735 tonnes), up 189,500 tonnes or 11.36% from 1,667,000 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 50.91%, up 5.19 percentage points from 45.72% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the upward trend to 1.88 mln tonnes next week and to 1.90 mln tonnes that following week. 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.9 mln tonnes in December at current utilization rate, above the 7.12 mln tonnes in the previous month and also above 7.6 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.  

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 18,891,700 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,723,485 tonnes or 8.36% from 20,615,185 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 80,933,115 tonnes, down 5,111,865 tonnes or 5.94% from 86,044,980 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to increase this week. In the week as of December 20th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,719,300 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 390,300 tonnes by 11.74% from 3,328,600 tonnes last week yet down by 34.19% from 5,651,700 tonnes of the same period last year. With huge imports arriving at ports in December, the stocks will probably post modest rises later.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 40 cargoes with 2.577 mln tonnes this week, a total of 93 cargoes with 6.014 mln tonnes for December so far. The import is predicted to be 144 cargoes with 9.349 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January, 4.8 mln tonnes for February, and 5 mln tonnes for March. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Dec. 16-20), domestic soybean meal prices continue to fall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 40-80 yuan/tonne at 2,710-2,880 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks increase this week as soybean crush returns to a high level of 1.85 mln tonnes. In the week as of December 20th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 435,800 tonnes, up 43,800 tonnes by 11.17% from 392,000 tonnes last week yet down by 54.16% from 950,900 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks may continue to climb higher slightly as soybean crush is estimated at 1.88 mln tonnes next week and 1.90 mln tonnes that following week. 

Price: This week (Dec. 16-20), domestic soybean oil prices move higher for a third straight week. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,830-7,000 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up by 70-200 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Despite rising operation rates, soybean oil stocks still decline further with festival demand for small packing oils underway and as several mills still have a line of buyers waiting for picking up goods. In the week as of Dec. 20th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 900,900 tonnes, down 49,550 tonnes by 5.21% from 950,450 tonnes last week, down 212,400 tonnes by 19.08% from 1,113,300 tonnes last month, and down 754,100 tonnes by 45.56% from 1,655,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,225,200 tonnes. There is a total of 1,624,500tonnes in soybean oil contracts to be fulfilled domestically, so soybean oil stocks will see a rundown in later period. But as mills continue to raise operation rates to the high level, soybean oil stocks will follow to slow down declines.