Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 24/12/2019

2019-12-24 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,568	4,324	150	-906	4,066
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,574	4,324	150	-900	4,059
Costal Shandong	6,800	2,900	3,583	4,324	150	-891	4,028
Jiangsu	6,850	2,780	3,498	4,324	150	-976	4,016
Guangdong	6,950	2,730	3,477	4,324	150	-997	3,992

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,568	4,175	150	-757	3,878
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,574	4,175	150	-751	3,871
Costal Shandong	6,800	2,900	3,583	4,175	150	-742	3,839
Jiangsu	6,850	2,780	3,498	4,175	150	-827	3,827
Guangdong	6,950	2,730	3,477	4,175	150	-848	3,803

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,635	3,340	150	145	2,737
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,641	3,340	150	151	2,729
Costal Shandong	6,800	2,900	3,651	3,340	150	161	2,696
Jiangsu	6,850	2,780	3,566	3,340	150	76	2,684
Guangdong	6,950	2,730	3,547	3,340	150	57	2,658

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,502	3,380	150	-28	2,955
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,507	3,380	150	-23	2,949
Costal Shandong	6,800	2,900	3,515	3,380	150	-15	2,919
Jiangsu	6,850	2,780	3,429	3,380	150	-101	2,908
Guangdong	6,950	2,730	3,408	3,380	150	-122	2,885

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,535	3,500	150	-115	3,065
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,541	3,500	150	-109	3,058
Costal Shandong	6,800	2,900	3,549	3,500	150	-101	3,028
Jiangsu	6,850	2,780	3,463	3,500	150	-187	3,016
Guangdong	6,950	2,730	3,442	3,500	150	-208	2,993

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,790	3,070	3,542	3,440	160	-58	3,142
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	2,920	3,398	3,560	160	-322	3,322
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,670	2,920	3,403	3,580	160	-337	3,341
Boxing, Shandong	6,820	2,890	3,403	3,600	160	-357	3,336
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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