Today (Dec. 24), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are stable today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,300 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports and traders are in fair shipments, which is good to the market. However, China will substantially increase soybean imports from the US after the trade deal is signed. Moreover, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US and China will very soon sign the phase 1 trade deal, so China may ramp up purchases of US agricultural products. In addition, Brazil crop is expected to hit a record high production and global soybean is in huge supply . In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.01-0.03 yuan/kg. There is not much spot cottonseed available for sale on the market, and Xinjiang oil mills continue to replenish the stock. Also, ranchers are stocking up cottonseed ahead of the holiday. Thus, these factors bolster the cottonseed market. However, due to the inconsiderable crush margin and the halt of operation on inspection of environmental protection, oil mills are a little bit wary of purchasing cottonseed. Besides, the delivered price of cottonseed arriving at mills falls on downward freight from Xinjiang to inland. It is predicted that the overall cottonseed will continue trending up with fluctuations.

Summary: US soybean futures closed with gains on optimism that China would ramp up purchases of US agricultural products. But on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, oil futures fluctuate on technical adjustment, of which soybean oil inches lower and palm oil edges higher. In the spot markets, soybean oil partially declines by 30-40 yuan/tonne and palm oil increases by 10-40 yuan/tonne. The trading is tepid for spot contracts, but with some purchases upon low-level forward basis. China bought two cargoes of US soybeans on Monday, and port soybean stocks are also rising. And mills raised soybean crush to a very high level of 1.86 mln tonnes last week and will peg it at nearly 1.90 mln tonnes for both the coming two weeks. Therefore, oil market is fluctuating and adjustment on profit taking. But with growing import cost due to rising US soybean prices, the crush is no more profitable for near-month cargoes on the DCE. And small packing oil is in quick shipment under ongoing festival demand, and some mills are still having a line of buyers waiting for picking up goods. Soybean oil stocks have already dropped by 5% weekly to 900,000 tonnes. And the market has a positive prospect due to the estimate for a production reduction in palm oil in Southeast Asia. The oil market is predicted to have little downside space and will keep its overall strengthening trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at6790-7050 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial decline of 30-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6790-6800, Rizhao traders 6870, Zhangjiagang traders6950, and Guangzhou mills 7050and traders 6880-6900). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6230-6330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6320-6330,up 10; Rizhao traders 6300, up 40; Zhangjiagang traders 6280, up 30; Guangzhou traders6230-6240, up 20; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily edges higher in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan partially at 7770-8080 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7770; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 8080.) Rapeseed supply is tightening in China, which can be attributed to tensions between China and Canada, so mills have to keep low operation rates. In addition, soybean oil and rapeseed oil stocks also keep decreasing, which have buoyed rapeseed oil spot market to move higher. But China may buy substantial amount of US agricultural products after the trade deal is signed, while it is now scooping up on South American soybeans. Moreover, due to tight soybean meal supplies, mills are picking up operation rates, sending soybean crush to a very high level of 1.86 mln tonnes last week. The overall market is predicted to stay strengthening, but it is necessary to avoid risks of short fluctuation.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil stays stable today. The price of cottonseed remains high. And some oil mills stop operation due to the inspection for environmental protection. Hence, cottonseed oil market is bolstered. Due to the limited downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil, there are not many actual transactions of some manufacturers.  It is expected that short-term cottonseed oil may keep strong with fluctuations. Beyond that, soybean oil on DCE today edges down, and some spot soybean oil drops by 30-40 yuan/tonne. All these are bearish for cottonseed oil market. Accordingly, short-term cottonseed oil may move sideways in a steady pace. Buyers can maintain a wait-and-see attitude.