Today (Dec. 24), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed with gains on optimism that China would ramp up purchases of US agricultural products. Meal futures open higher to edge up on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2710-2850 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2830-2850, Jiangsu 2770-2820, Dongguan 2700-2720, and Guangxi 2730-2760, Fujian 2820-2850.) The hog herd is expanding due to handsome breeding margins and incentive government policies. With growing import cost due to rising US soybean prices, the crush is no more profitable for near-month cargoes on the DCE. But China is committed to purchase more US agricultural products, so soybean imports may be higher than expected. Soybean crush last week returned to a very high level of 1.86 mln tonnes, so soybean meal stocks also follow to recover. In addition, meal futures have weak potential to rebound on the DCE recently, which has also weighed down meal prices. As feed enterprises have mostly postponed replenishment for the festival, soybean meal is weak in going upward now and may maintain range-bound before the demand turns better. Buyers out of stock can replenish in small batch upon price declines and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal remains flat today, of which it settles at 2,190-2,320 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,270; Guangdong 2,190; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid unresolved issues between China and Canada, so oil mills still prop up prices. But the later arrivals of soybeans may be higher than expected as China promises to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. Last week, soybean crush rallied to a super high level of 1.86 mln tonnes. Besides, the demand for meals is affected by slack season of aquaculture, recurrence of African swine fever in some regions. And the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal both increased last week. However, a large quantity of sunflower meal arrives at port, squeezing the rapeseed meal price further. Thus, the price rises of rapeseed meal are limited, and short-term market may keep fluctuating at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline or buy on immediate demand.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne. In order to protect fish resources, 80% of which are still juvenile, Peru has announced a one-week fishing ban in its centre-north area. And a rumor said that the fishing will not start again until January 2, 2020. In addition, fish catches are predicted to have a gloomy outlook. Domestic traders are thus bolstered to raise fishmeal prices. However, the demand is also lower over slack season and the overall shipment is slow, so there is limited upward space. Overall, fishmeall market is predicted to have some upward potential in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 97,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal stays stable today. The price of cottonseed is still high, and some oil mills stop operation due to the inspection for environmental protection.  Both factors are supporting the market of cottonseed meal. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow, so some feed factories prefer to purchase soybean meal. Moreover, feed factories delay the restocking ahead of the holiday, so the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. In consequence, the market of cottonseed meal is dragged down by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in a short term. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.