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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 25/12/2019

2019-12-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,533  4,328  150 -945 4,076 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,527  4,328  150 -951 4,074 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,860  3,551  4,328  150 -927 4,033 
Jiangsu 6,820  2,760  3,476  4,328  150 -1002 4,028 
Guangdong 6,950  2,690  3,446  4,328  150 -1032 3,997 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,533  4,179  150 -796 3,888 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,527  4,179  150 -802 3,885 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,860  3,551  4,179  150 -778 3,844 
Jiangsu 6,820  2,760  3,476  4,179  150 -853 3,839 
Guangdong 6,950  2,690  3,446  4,179  150 -883 3,808 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,599  3,343  150  106  2,746 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,593  3,343  150  100  2,743 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,860  3,619  3,343  150  126  2,700 
Jiangsu 6,820  2,760  3,544  3,343  150  51  2,695 
Guangdong 6,950  2,690  3,515  3,343  150  22  2,662 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,467  3,384  150  -67  2,965 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,461  3,384  150  -73  2,963 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,860  3,483  3,384  150  -51  2,924 
Jiangsu 6,820  2,760  3,408  3,384  150  -126  2,919 
Guangdong 6,950  2,690  3,376  3,384  150  -158  2,890 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,500  3,500  150  -150  3,070 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,494  3,500  150  -156  3,068 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,860  3,517  3,500  150  -133  3,028 
Jiangsu 6,820  2,760  3,442  3,500  150  -208  3,023 
Guangdong 6,950  2,690  3,411  3,500  150  -239  2,993 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,770  3,030  3,507  3,440  160  -93  3,146 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,620  2,880  3,363  3,560  160  -357  3,326 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  2,870  3,357  3,580  160  -383  3,349 
Boxing, Shandong 6,800  2,880  3,392  3,600  160  -368  3,340 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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