Today (Dec. 25), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean closed with gains last night, as US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and China would very soon sign the phase 1 trade deal. But China’s meal prices are under pressure due to the detente, so meal futures open lower to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot price drops by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2680-2830 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2830, Shandong 2800-2830, Jiangsu 2720-2760, Dongguan 2680-2700, and Guangxi 2720-2750, Fujian 2810-2840.) With huge soybean imports arriving at ports this month, soybean crush last week rose to a very high level of 1.86 mln tonnes, and soybean meal stocks also followed to increase. Moreover, there are also huge quantities of alternative meals arriving at southern ports, which has dragged down meal prices in Guangdong and Guangxi to the lowest level nationwide and thus impacted domestic soybean meal market. However, local governments are working hard to support hog production as the slaughtering rate is linked up with government performance examination in main production provinces, in addition to huge margins in breeding, so finishing pigs now are kept for breeding and sows stocks are also recovering at a faster pace. And due to growing import cost due to rising US soybean prices, the crush is no more profitable for near-month cargoes on the DCE. Therefore, there may be limited space for further declines in soybean meal prices. But meal futures have not yet stepped on a steady trend, and soybean meal trading is only 100,000 tonnes on average per day as mid-to-downstream buyers have been delaying festival replenishment; thus, soybean meal prices have weak upward potential. Overall, short-term prices may fluctuate to decline slightly, and buyers can wait at the moment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Today, imported rapeseed meal price edges down, of which it settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,170-2,310 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,260; Guangdong 2,190; Fujian not offered). A large quantity of soybean arrives at ports this month. Last week, soybean crush rallied to a super high level of 1.86 mln tonnes. Moreover, imported mixed meals arrive at Southern ports intensively, and imported sunflower meal arrives in large quantity particularly. Thus, the price of rapeseed meal is curbed by these factors. But the later supply of rapeseed is still tight, for it shows no sign of a detente in relations between China and Canada, which will limit price declines of short-term rapeseed meal. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne. According to the latest news, under the strong urge by the fishermen, Peruvian Production Department has released a 10-day ban on fish catches to protect resources as most of them are still juvenile. And a rumor said that the fishing will not start again until January 2, 2020. In addition, fish catches are predicted to have a gloomy outlook. Domestic traders are thus bolstered to raise fishmeal prices. However, the demand is also lower over slack season and the overall shipment is slow, so there is limited upward space. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to have some upward potential in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 97,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable and individually declines by 20 yuan/tonne today. The price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow, limiting the demand. And feed factories delay the restocking ahead of the holiday, so the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. Besides, meals on DCE today fall back with low opens, and spot soybean meal down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Thus, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by these factors. But some oil mills stop operation due to the inspection for environmental protection, and the cost of cottonseed is high. These two factors both limit the downward space of cottonseed meal price. And short-term market is predicted to fluctuate weakly at a narrow range. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.