Today (Dec. 25), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are stable today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,300 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports and traders are in fair shipments, which is good to the market. But US President Donald Trump said that the US and China will very soon sign the phase 1 trade deal, so China may ramp up purchases of US agricultural products. And domestic market will be negative if soybean imports increase. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed price stays stable with several rises of 0.02 yuan/tonne today. There is not much spot cottonseed available for sale on the market, and Xinjiang oil mills continue to replenish the stock. Also, ranchers are stocking up cottonseed ahead of the holiday. Thus, these factors bolster the cottonseed market. However, due to the inconsiderable crush margin and the halt of operation on inspection of environmental protection, oil mills are a little bit wary of purchasing cottonseed, and the trading volume is limited. Therefore, the price rises of cottonseed are limited by these factors. It is predicted that the overall cottonseed will keep trending up with fluctuations.

Summary: US soybean closed with gains last night, as US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and China would very soon sign the phase 1 trade deal. But on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, soybean oil edges lower and palm oil moderately rises. In the spot markets, soybean oil declines partially by 10-30 yuan/tonne and palm oil fluctuates partially by 10 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading with some purchase at low-level basis. While palm oil spots keep firm bolstered by a reduction forecast in production in top Southeast Asian producers, soybean oil fluctuates to downside due to the impact of a detente in trade war. After reaching the phase 1 trade deal, China has started the purchases of soybeans from the United States, sending soybean stocks to mount higher at ports. And with the coming of festival demand for soybean meal, mills will probably raise soybean crush to nearly 1.90 mln tonnes both in the next two weeks. Funds keep reducing positions to book profits. Therefore, oil market has come under pressure. But with growing import cost due to rising US soybean prices, the crush is no more profitable for near-month cargoes on the DCE. And small packing oil is in quick shipment under ongoing festival demand, and some mills are still have a line of buyers waiting for picking up goods. Soybean oil stocks will likely fall to around 800,000 tonnes after the New Year. In addition, Indonesia has declared to implement B30 from January and palm oil production has sharply decreased in December, so funds are watching for going long on the dips. Overall, the oil market is predicted to have little downside space this round and to maintain its strengthening trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at6770-7050 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6770-6780, Rizhao traders 6870, Zhangjiagang traders6920, and Guangzhou mills 7050and traders 6880-6890). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6230-6330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6320-6330; Rizhao traders 6290, down 10; Zhangjiagang traders 6280, flat; Guangzhou traders6230-6250, up 10; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily edges down in price today, of which it settles down 10 yuan partially at 7750-8080 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7750; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 8080.) China is forecast to buy substantial US agricultural products like soybeans if the trade deal is signed. Meanwhile, China has already kept buying up on South American soybeans. With huge soybean supply, mills will work to raise soybean crush to an average level of nearly 1.90 mln tonnes in the next two weeks. This will be a curb on rapeseed oil market. But mills now have very little rapeseed for crush as there is no sign of a thaw between China and Canada, so rapeseed oil stocks are also decreasing like soybean oil stocks. Overall, rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep its strengthening trend, but there may be some fluctuations and adjustments at high levels. Buyers can wait at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some fluctuations of 100 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed remains high. And some oil mills stop operation due to the inspection for environmental protection. Hence, cottonseed oil market is bolstered. Due to the limited downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil, there are not many actual transactions of some manufacturers.  It is expected that short-term cottonseed oil may keep strong with fluctuations. Beyond that, soybean oil on DCE today edges down, and some spot soybean oil drops by 10-30 yuan/tonne. All these are bearish for cottonseed oil market. Accordingly, short-term cottonseed oil may move sideways in a steady pace. Buyers can maintain a wait-and-see attitude.