Today (Dec. 26), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are stable today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,300 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports and traders are in fair shipments, which is good to the market. But China has committed to boost purchases of US agricultural products after both sides reach the phase 1 trade deal, so soybean imports may increase later. And Brazil is expected to harvest abundant soybeans. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed price stays stable with several declines of 0.03 yuan/tonne today. Due to the inconsiderable crush margin and the halt of operation on inspection of environmental protection, oil mills are a little bit wary of purchasing cottonseed, and the trading volume is limited. Accordingly, cottonseed market is weighed down. But there is not much spot cottonseed available for sale on the market, and Xinjiang mills continue to replenish the stock. Also, ranchers are stocking up cottonseed ahead of holiday. In consequence, the price declines of cottonseed are limited. It is expected that the overall cottonseed market still keeps trending up with fluctuations.

Summary: US stock market was closed on Christmas last night, and oil futures fluctuate to upward on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot market, soybean oil increases by 30-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil posts a partial increase of 20-40 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading with some purchase at low-level basis. Soybean import cost increases with rising US soybean prices, so net crush margins have moved below zero on the DCE. And buyers are still restocking for the holidays, so small packing oils are in quick shipment and bulk oil is in tight supplies in some regions. Moreover, funds are buying on the dips with continued impact of a reduction in palm oil production. These will all lay a perfect foundation for the oil market. But China has started to purchase US soybeans after the phase 1 deal and soybean stocks are also increasing at ports, so mills will likely pick up soybean crush to nearly 1.90 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks. This will slow down the upward pace of oils in the short term, but the market is predicted to keep the strengthening trend due to bullish fundamentals. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at6810-7150 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 30-100 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6810-6820, Rizhao traders 6920, Zhangjiagang traders6980, and Guangzhou mills 7150and traders 6930-6950). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6270-6330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial rise of by 20-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6320-6330, flat; Rizhao traders 6320, up 30; Zhangjiagang traders 6280, flat; Guangzhou traders6270, up 40; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily edges down in price today, of which it settles down 10 yuan partially at 7790-8150 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7750; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 8080.) Rapeseed supply is tightening in China, which can be attributed to tensions between China and Canada, so mills have to keep low operation rates. In addition, mills now are concentrating on carrying out contracts, and rapeseed oil have low stocks, so the overall market has a positive prospect. But China will likely buy substantial US soybeans after reaching the trade deal, and soybean stocks have also been increasing at ports, so mills will continue to pick up crush. Moreover, the demand for oils has slowed down after buyers replenished at full swing previously. These have added to fluctuations in rapeseed oil market. Participants need to keep good balance of purchases and sales. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price is stable with several rises of 100 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed remains high. And some oil mills stop operation due to the inspection for environmental protection, which results in low inventory of cottonseed oil. Besides, oils on DCE today fluctuate to go up, and spot soybean oil rises by 30-50 yuan/tonne. Hence, cottonseed oil market is bolstered. Due to the limited downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil, there is little trading volume in some factories. Accordingly, these factors bear the market, and short-term cottonseed oil may move sideways in a steady pace. Buyers can remain sidelined and buy on immediate demand.