Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 27/12/2019

2019-12-27 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,571	4,296	150	-875	3,988
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,544	4,296	150	-903	3,992
Costal Shandong	6,940	2,830	3,554	4,296	150	-892	3,959
Jiangsu	7,000	2,750	3,503	4,296	150	-944	3,944
Guangdong	7,200	2,690	3,493	4,296	150	-953	3,896

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,571	4,215	150	-794	3,885
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,544	4,215	150	-822	3,890
Costal Shandong	6,940	2,830	3,554	4,215	150	-811	3,856
Jiangsu	7,000	2,750	3,503	4,215	150	-863	3,842
Guangdong	7,200	2,690	3,493	4,215	150	-872	3,794

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,639	3,334	150	155	2,684
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,612	3,334	150	128	2,689
Costal Shandong	6,940	2,830	3,624	3,334	150	140	2,653
Jiangsu	7,000	2,750	3,573	3,334	150	89	2,638
Guangdong	7,200	2,690	3,565	3,334	150	81	2,587

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,503	3,215	150	138	2,706
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,476	3,215	150	111	2,710
Costal Shandong	6,940	2,830	3,485	3,215	150	120	2,678
Jiangsu	7,000	2,750	3,433	3,215	150	68	2,665
Guangdong	7,200	2,690	3,421	3,215	150	56	2,619

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,537	3,500	150	-113	3,023
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,510	3,500	150	-141	3,028
Costal Shandong	6,940	2,830	3,520	3,500	150	-130	2,995
Jiangsu	7,000	2,750	3,468	3,500	150	-183	2,981
Guangdong	7,200	2,690	3,457	3,500	150	-193	2,934

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,950	3,030	3,536	3,440	160	-64	3,110
Dalian, Liaoning	6,820	2,880	3,395	3,560	160	-325	3,286
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,800	2,850	3,368	3,580	160	-372	3,315
Boxing, Shandong	6,950	2,850	3,392	3,600	160	-368	3,310
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

Print Close