Today (Dec. 27), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybeans closed with gains on an upbeat trade prospect between China and the United States. Meal futures increase yet with a very slight rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot price steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2690-2820 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2820, Shandong 2780-2820, Jiangsu 2730-2750, Dongguan 2690-2700, and Guangxi 2710-2740.) Along with huge amount of soybean imports arriving at ports, soybean crush will be raised to an extraordinary high level of nearly 1.90 mln tonnes both in the next two weeks, and soybean meal stocks have already rallied. Meanwhile, meal prices both in Guangdong and Guangxi have been at the bottom in the country, constrained by slack demand from aquaculture in south China and substantial alternative meals imports. But major production provinces have linked live hog slaughtering heads to government performance examination, coupled with handsome margins in breeding, so farmers now are raising three-way crossbred finishing pigs into sows. Sows stocks are increasing at a faster pace and live hog stocks are expected to increase sharply after May next year, and poultry stocks are also rising. Moreover, cost of importing soybeans is picked up by higher US soybean prices and the crush is no more profitable on the DCE. All these will help limit price declines. In addition to belated festival demand, soybean meal market is also dented by the arbitrage due to rising oil futures. Soybean meal prices have weak potential for bouncing and may keep rang-bound in the short term. Buyers are suggested to replenish in small batch and remain cautious in chasing after high prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal dips slightly in price today, of which it settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,160-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,250; Guangdong 2,180; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid tensions between China and Canada, so rapeseed crush stays at a low level, and oil mills prefer to prop up prices. However, a large quantity of soybean arrives at ports this month, and soybean crush will soar to a super high level of nearly 1.9 mln tonnes in the next two weeks. Besides, sunflower meal also arrives at ports in large quantity in December, impacting the market share of rapeseed meal. More than that, the demand from aquaculture in South China has entered into an off season, and rapeseed meal price is weak in going up due to the fading aquatic farming. Thus, short-term rapeseed meal market is likely to keep fluctuating at a narrow range. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne. The slack consumption on fishmeal has dented the demand and hampered the overall shipment, which is bearish to the market. However, Peruvian Production Department has released a 10-day ban on fish catches under the urge of fishermen to protect juvenile fish resources, and a rumor said that the fishing will not start again until January 2, 2020. Fish catch is forecast to have a gloomy outlook, so domestic traders are bolstered to raise fishmeal prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to have some upward potential in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 97,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal stays stable today. Some oil mills stop operation, and cottonseed price is high. Besides, all the main producing provinces link the hog slaughter with performance evaluations. Moreover, it is common to keep seed of cross-bred fattening pig for sow due to the lucrative breeding, so the sow stocks recover rapidly. And the hog herd is predicted to rally significantly after next May, so do the poultry breeding. Thus, cottonseed meal market is bolstered by all these factors. On the other hand, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrowed price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, and a slack season of aquaculture in South China. Beyond that, downstream factories delay the restocking ahead of the holiday, so the trading volume of some manufacturers is dull. Accordingly, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in a short term. In this case, buyers with stock in hand can stay on the sideline, wait for a rebound in soybean meal price to make replenishment on the dips.