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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 30/12/2019

2019-12-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,606  4,275  150 -819 3,947 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,557  4,275  150 -868 3,959 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,830  3,556  4,275  150 -869 3,930 
Jiangsu 7,000  2,770  3,518  4,275  150 -907 3,918 
Guangdong 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,275  150 -924 3,870 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,606  4,193  150 -737 3,843 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,557  4,193  150 -786 3,855 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,830  3,556  4,193  150 -787 3,826 
Jiangsu 7,000  2,770  3,518  4,193  150 -825 3,814 
Guangdong 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,193  150 -842 3,766 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,675  3,294  150  231  2,618 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,625  3,294  150  181  2,630 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,830  3,626  3,294  150  182  2,600 
Jiangsu 7,000  2,770  3,588  3,294  150  144  2,587 
Guangdong 7,200  2,700  3,573  3,294  150  129  2,537 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,537  3,177  150  210  2,644 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,489  3,177  150  162  2,655 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,830  3,487  3,177  150  160  2,628 
Jiangsu 7,000  2,770  3,448  3,177  150  121  2,616 
Guangdong 7,200  2,700  3,429  3,177  150  102  2,571 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,572  3,500  150  -78  3,009 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,523  3,500  150  -127  3,021 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,830  3,521  3,500  150  -129  2,993 
Jiangsu 7,000  2,770  3,483  3,500  150  -167  2,981 
Guangdong 7,200  2,700  3,465  3,500  150  -185  2,934 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,030  3,060  3,573  3,440  160  -27  3,094 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,880  2,910  3,429  3,560  160  -291  3,274 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,830  2,860  3,381  3,580  160  -359  3,309 
Boxing, Shandong 7,000  2,850  3,400  3,600  160  -360  3,300 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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