Today (Dec. 30), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybeans lost gains on profit taking, as the USDA reported lower weekly export sales and China and the US did not determine the time and place to sign the phase 1 trade deal. Meal futures move higher after lower opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots mostly increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne, with better trading at low levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2700-2840 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2840, Shandong 2800-2810, Jiangsu 2740-2760, Dongguan 2700-2710, and Guangxi 2710-2740.) Mid-to-downstream buyers will be stocking up soybean meal at full swing this week and next week with the coming of the Spring Festival. Moreover, as major production provinces have linked live hog slaughtering heads to government performance examination, coupled with handsome margins in breeding, farmers now are raising three-way crossbred finishing pigs into sows. Sows stocks are increasing at a faster pace and live hog stocks are expected to increase sharply after May next year, and poultry stocks are also rising. In addition, cost of importing soybeans is picked up by higher US soybean prices and the crush is no more profitable on the DCE. Oil mills are propping up prices, which buoys soybean meal market to rebound. But soybean imports are arriving at ports substantially this month, and soybean crush will stay at an extremely high level of 2.0 mln tonnes in both next two weeks, so soybean meal stocks will continue to increase. And there is slack demand from aquaculture in south China and imports of alternative meals are arriving at ports in huge quantities. Buyers are suggested to replenish appropriately on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 20-30 yuan/tonne at 2,200-2,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,260; Guangdong not offered; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid tensions between China and Canada, so oil mills prop up prices. A large quantity of soybean arrives at port this month. Also, soybean crush rises back to a super high level of 2 mln tonnes this week and will remain at that level for the next two weeks. Furthermore, the demand for meals is affected by slack season of aquaculture in South area, which has led rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas to increase by 22% week on week to 16,000 tonnes. Therefore, the price rises of rapeseed meal may be limited, and short-term market may keep fluctuating at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne. The slack consumption on fishmeal has dented the demand and hampered the overall shipment, which is bearish to the market. However, as juvenile fish takes up a larger percentage, fishermen in Peru have urged the government to stop fishing to protect the resources. The 10-day fishing ban will be over soon and a rumor said that the fishing will start again after January 2, 2020. Therefore, Chinese traders are reluctant to adjust fishmeal prices as they are awaiting the fish catches after the ban is released. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steadily keep its strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 91,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some rises of 10-50 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed remains high. And meals on DCE today come off early highs, and spot soybean meal mostly up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Accordingly, these factors support cottonseed meal market. But the demand is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, and aquaculture in South China is in the off season. Moreover, the trading of some manufacturers is dull. Thus, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by these factors. In addition, with the stockpiling starting before holiday, short-term cottonseed meal may fluctuate to rebound moderately. Therefore, buyers can make appropriate replenishment on the dips but not chase up prices excessively.