Today (Dec. 30), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are stable today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,300 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports and traders are in fair shipments, which is good to the market. But China is forecast to boost purchases of US agricultural products after both sides reach the phase 1 trade deal, so soybean imports may increase later. And Brazil is expected to harvest abundant soybeans. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg. There is not much spot cottonseed, and some traders with goods in hand are reluctant to sell them. Thus, the market supply is tight, which bolsters the cottonseed market. However, due to the inconsiderable crush margin, oil mills are a little bit wary of purchasing cottonseed, and the trading volume is limited. Therefore, the cottonseed price is depressed. It is predicted that the overall cottonseed still maintains a trend of fluctuating to go up, so buyers can make appropriate replenishment upon low prices.

Summary: US soybeans retreated last Friday on profit taking and lower export sales in USDA reports. Oil futures slow down gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil partially fluctuates by 20-30 yuan/tonne and palm oil up by 20-70 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading. Soybean imports are arriving at ports substantially this month, and soybean crush was raised to 1.99 mln tonnes last week and is predicted to stay at the extremely high level of 2.0 mln tonnes in the next two weeks. Soybean oil output has thus increased, in addition to the slower shipment with the end of replenishment before the festival, so soybean oil stocks rose by 2% to 920,000 tonnes as of last Friday. Meanwhile, edible palm oil stocks also increased by 2% to 740,000 tonnes. These have dented rises in oil prices, and meal futures have a sign of rebound with the start of festival demand; hence, it is necessary to avoid risks of fluctuations on profit taking in the short term. But some regions are still short of bulk oils and have to transport soybean oil from the southern regions to the north. Besides, the market is still concerned about the reduction in palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Overall, the oil market will keep its strengthening pattern and will have little downside space even if there are declines. Buyers can wait at the moment as futures prices have slower gains now.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6960-7100 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, fluctuating by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6960-6970, Rizhao traders 7050-7070, Zhangjiagang traders 7100, and Guangzhou mills 7300and traders 7110-7120). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6520-6580 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 20-70 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6550-6560, up 20; Rizhao traders 6580, up 70; Zhangjiagang traders 6550, up 20; Guangzhou traders 6520-6540, up 20; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil keeps stable in price today, of which it settles at 7890-8180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7890; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 8180.) Mills now have low rapeseed stocks as there is still no sign of a thaw between China and Canada, and rapeseed oil stocks fell marginally to 341,000 tonnes last week. But soybean imports are arriving at ports substantially this month, and soybean crush is raised to an extremely high level of 2.0 mln tonnes this week and also expected to stay at such a high level in the coming two weeks. Besides, the demand for rapeseed oil is also subdued by higher prices. Overall, rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep its strengthening trend. There may be frequent fluctuations in the short term because investors may close positions in oils once meal futures prices bounce on festival demand. Buyers can stay on the sidelines at the moment.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price today mostly rises by 50-350 yuan/tonne and individually drops by 200 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed oil price is boosted by pricey cottonseed, a rise of 90-120 yuan/tonne in spot soybean oil last Friday, as well as a rise of soybean oil on DCE today. However, as the downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited and the early offer is too high in individual regions, enterprises have not traded yet. Thus, the price falls back, and short-term cottonseed oil price is predicted to fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers had better not chase up prices too high.