China Soybean Weekly Report -- As of December 27, 2019

2019-12-31 www.cofeed.com

I.Soybean

Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. However, US President Donald Trump said that the US and China will very soon sign the phase 1 trade deal, so China may ramp up purchases of US agricultural products. And Brazil is expected to harvest abundant soybeans due to favorable crop weather. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term.

Crush: This week (Dec. 21-27), with a further rise in operation rates, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,998,800 tonnes (meal 1,579,052 tonnes and oil 379,772 tonnes), up 142,300 tonnes or 7.66% from 1,856,500 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 56.73%, up 5.82 percentage points from 50.91% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the upward trend to a very high level of 2.01 mln tonnes next week and 2.02 mln tonnes that following week.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 20,890,500 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,587,485 tonnes or 7.06% from 22,477,985 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 82,931,915 tonnes, down 4,975,865 tonnes or 5.66% from 87,907,780 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to increase this week. In the week as of December 27th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 4,069,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 349,900 tonnes by 9.41% from 3,719,300 tonnes last week yet down by 28.40% from 5,683,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Although soybean imports are arriving at ports substantially in December, the stocks will slow down growth with higher crush next week.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 33 cargoes with 2.132 mln tonnes this week, a total of 127 cargoes with 8.217 mln tonnes for December so far. The import is predicted to be 144 cargoes with 9.349 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January, 5 mln tonnes for February, and 5.10 mln tonnes for March. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.

China’s Customs:

China's Soybean Import by Country for Nov 2019
Country	This Month		M-O-M		Y-O-Y
	Qty.	Price	Qty.Var.	Price Var.	Qty.Var.	Price Var.
	0'000	USD/tonne	0'000	USD/tonne	0'000	USD/tonne
	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne
Ethiopia	0	0	-0.03	-441.00	0.00	0.00
China	0	0	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-616.00
Russia	6.45	294	-2.40	-10.00	-1.26	-26.00
Ukraine	0.48	417	0.37	-15.00	0.48	417.00
Argentina	141.71	398	45.72	14.00	138.10	-33.00
Brazil	385.75	412	6.43	16.00	-121.10	-25.00
Uruguay	37.37	400	18.65	7.00	22.98	-20.00
Canada	0.48	461	0.11	-124.00	-5.24	19.00
U.S.	255.54	383	140.81	1.00	255.54	383.00
Total	827.76	399	209.62	9.00	289.43	-36.00

II.Soybean Meal

Price: This week (Dec. 23-27), domestic soybean meal prices continue the downward trend. As of this Friday, the price settles down 40-90 yuan/tonne at 2,670-2,820 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions.

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue to increase this week as soybean crush extends its upward pace to an extremely high level of 1.99 mln tonnes. In the week as of December 27th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 520,300 tonnes, up 84,500 tonnes by 19.39% from 435,800 tonnes last week yet down by 54.02% from 1,131,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks may continue to climb higher as soybean crush is estimated at 2.0 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, but the pace will be slowed down by the festival demand.

China’s Customs:

China's Soybean Meal Import by Country for Nov 2019
Country	This Month		M-O-M		Y-O-Y
	Qty.	Price	Qty.Var.	Price Var.	Qty.Var.	Price Var.
	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne
Denmark	0	0	-800	-755	-3000.00	-698.00
U.S.	0	0	0	0	-52.35	-415.00
Netherlands	55	546	55	546	55.00	546.00
China	0	0	0	0	-987.63	-610.00
Total Qty.	55	546	-745	-209	-3984.98	-126.00

III.Soybean Oil

Price: This week (Dec. 23-27), domestic soybean oil prices move higher for a third straight week. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,930-7,140 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up by 80-220 yuan/tonne.

Inventory: Soybean oil sees higher stocks this week, as its output increases with rising operation rates and its delivery is slower with the end of festival replenishment. In the week as of Dec. 27th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 916,730 tonnes, up 15,830 tonnes by 1.76% from 900,90 tonnes last week, down 152,770 tonnes by 14.28% from 1,069,500 tonnes last month, and down 720,270 tonnes by 44% from 1,637,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,208,700 tonnes.

China’s Customs:

China's Soybean Oil Import by Country for NOV 2019
Country	This Month		M-O-M		Y-O-Y
	Qty.	Price	Qty.Var.	Price Var.	Qty.Var.	Price Var.
	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne	tonnes	USD/tonne
Argentina	31500	715.69	1000.00	42.14	-16493	-82.34
USA	3.05		3.05		-22.95
Brazil	8500	715.69	-9000.00	45.98	8500	715.69
Ukraine	5838.05	743.69	-3733.28	10.72	4831.05	16.03
Belarus	0		0		0
Russia	10463.25	752.06	-28987.75	35.07	7574.25	-62.34
Thailand	0		0		0
Italy	0		0		0
South Korea	0		0		0
North Korea	0		0		0
Vietnam	75.53	1279.29	-128.67	249.23	1.53
Taiwan, China	0		0		0
Malaysia	0		0		0
Netherlands	6.84		6.84		6.84
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0		0		0
Sweden	0		-46.25	-1870.18	-46
India	0		0		0
Canada	0		0		0
Paraguay	0		0		0
HK, China	0		0		0
France	0		0		0
Japan	0		0		0
Singapore	0		0		0
Austria	0		0		0
Spain	0		-0.01	-3500.00	0
Turkey	0		0		-4040	-758.22
Serbia	0		-800.96	-688.35	0
Greece	0		0		0
Kazakhstan	0		-115.84	-734.63	-192	-736.65
Israel	0		0		0
Germany	0		0		0
TPKM	160.21	762.75	160.21	762.75	160.21	762.75
Poland	0		0		0
Total Qty.	56546.93	726.74	-41642.66	29.13	273.93	-69.78

China's Soybean Oil Export by Country for NOV 2019
Country	This Month		M-O-M		Y-O-Y
Country	Qty. tonnes	Price USD/tonne	Qty.Var. tonnes	Price Var. USD/tonne	Qty.Var. tonnes	Price Var. USD/tonne
Japan	0		0		0
Singapore	444.16	945.60	137.82	49.88	246.16	945.60
Myanmar	0		0		0
North Korea	10949.58	1053.46	287.92	-26.54	-3400.42	-21.91
HK, China	3707.4	751.41	-124.69	22.71	-2208.6	-15.59
Macao China	28.41	924.29	18.91	-158.03	19.41	-236.05
Taiwan, China	0		0		0
Maldives	0		0		0
South Korea	23.85	1155.60	-2.74	-160.76	-0.15	66.35
Malaysia	592.94	755.80	214.79	-2.88	592.94
Vietnam	0		0		0
Angola	0		0		0
Niger	0		0		0
Mongolia	77.93	1005.85	-1.09	-4.01	3.93	-8.14
Mozambique	0		0		0
Pakistan	0		0		0
Cook Islands	0		0		0
Sierra Leone	0		0		0
Bahamas	0		0		0
Bangladesh	0		0		0
Philippines	19.87	1309.51	19.87		19.87	1309.51
Italy	0		0		0
Australia	0		-18.96		0
Canada	40	941.00	40	941.00	-20	4.67
New Zealand	0		0		0
Zimbabwe	0		0		0
Nigeria	216.46	812.00	216.46	812.00	216.46	812.00
Tunisia	0		0		0
Venezuela	0		0		0
Papua New Guinea	0		0		0
USA	0		0		0
Ethiopia	0		-109.36	-938.00	0
Indonesia	0		-0.01		0
Total	16100.6	966.48	678.92	-13.88	-4532.4	-20.95

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