I. National stocks
This week (as of Dec. 27), edible palm oil stock totals 738,900 tonnes at domestic ports, up 1.9% from 725,300 tonnes last week; up 44,900 tonnes or 6.5% from 694,000 tonnes the same period last month; up 263,800 tonnes or 55.5% from 475,100 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 136,800 tonnes, down 640 tonnes or 4.5% from 143,200 tonnes last week.
This week, palm oil sharply ramps up by 200-300 yuan/tonne from last week, while soybean oil mostly rises by 80-220 yuan/tonne compared last week, narrowing the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil. As of this Friday, the price gap is 523 yuan/tonne, which narrows by 107 yuan/tonne from 630 yuan/tonne last week. In addition, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be restricted with the temperature decreasing. As buyers remain cautious, the overall trading of palm oil turns light this week. It totals 18,450 tonnes, down by 20,600 tonnes or 52.75% from 39,050 tonnes last week, which leads palm oil stock to further rally. But due to the unprofitable import, buyers purchase less cargo in the late period, so it is predicted that palm oil stock will slow in the growth.
Region
/Port
|
Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）
|
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
|
W52
|
W51
|
Change
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
W52
|
W51
|
Change
|
Tianjin Port
|
9.7
|
6.65
|
3.05
|
31.08%
|
-13.40%
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
0
|
Hebei
|
0.68
|
0.7
|
-0.02
|
25.90%
|
36.00%
|
0.12
|
0.2
|
-0.08
|
Shandong Port
|
3.08
|
3.85
|
-0.77
|
-47.35%
|
4.80%
|
1.75
|
1.33
|
0.42
|
East China
|
29.45
|
30.37
|
-0.92
|
11.76%
|
142.39%
|
6.6
|
7.7
|
-1.1
|
Guangdong
|
23.75
|
26.4
|
-2.65
|
-4.04%
|
59.20%
|
2.55
|
2.6
|
-0.05
|
Guangxi
|
4.33
|
2.11
|
2.22
|
79.67%
|
60.40%
|
0.46
|
0.29
|
0.17
|
Fujian
|
2.9
|
2.45
|
0.45
|
38.10%
|
-6.50%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total：
|
73.89
|
72.53
|
1.36
|
6.50%
|
55.50%
|
13.68
|
14.32
|
-0.64
|
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for December this week is 650,000-670,000 tonnes, which is unchanged from last week (RBD palm olein 530,000-550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for January is flat at 320,000 tonnes with last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); the estimate for February keeps steady at 350,000 tonnes from last week (RBD palm olein 230,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
III. Margins and Shipments
Date
|
Sailing Schedule
|
CNF
（USD/mT）
|
Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)
|
DCE
(RBM/mT)
|
Import Margin
|
2019/12/23
|
Jan.2019
|
755
|
6358
|
6182
|
-176
|
2019/12/26
|
Jan.2019
|
760
|
6383
|
6156
|
-227
|
2019/12/27
|
Jan.2019
|
785
|
6595
|
6392
|
-203
|
Date
|
Cargoes
|
Sailing Schedule
|
CNF
（USD/mT）
|
Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)
|
Qty.
（0'000 mT）
|
2019/12/23
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/12/24
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/12/25
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/12/26
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/12/27
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
