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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 31/12/2019

2019-12-31 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,608  4,320  150 -862 4,001 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,593  4,320  150 -878 4,011 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,850  3,572  4,320  150 -898 3,987 
Jiangsu 7,080  2,750  3,518  4,320  150 -952 3,955 
Guangdong 7,250  2,710  3,518  4,320  150 -952 3,915 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,608  4,220  150 -762 3,875 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,593  4,220  150 -778 3,884 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,850  3,572  4,220  150 -798 3,860 
Jiangsu 7,080  2,750  3,518  4,220  150 -852 3,829 
Guangdong 7,250  2,710  3,518  4,220  150 -852 3,788 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,677  3,306  150  221  2,630 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,661  3,306  150  205  2,641 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,850  3,642  3,306  150  186  2,615 
Jiangsu 7,080  2,750  3,589  3,306  150  133  2,582 
Guangdong 7,250  2,710  3,591  3,306  150  135  2,539 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,539  3,359  150  30  2,872 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,524  3,359  150  15  2,881 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,850  3,503  3,359  150  -7  2,858 
Jiangsu 7,080  2,750  3,447  3,359  150  -62  2,829 
Guangdong 7,250  2,710  3,446  3,359  150  -63  2,790 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,574  3,500  150  -76  3,007 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,558  3,500  150  -92  3,016 
Costal Shandong 6,950  2,850  3,537  3,500  150  -113  2,993 
Jiangsu 7,080  2,750  3,482  3,500  150  -168  2,962 
Guangdong 7,250  2,710  3,482  3,500  150  -168  2,922 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,040  3,060  3,574  3,440  160  -26  3,092 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,890  2,910  3,430  3,560  160  -290  3,272 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,850  2,900  3,416  3,580  160  -324  3,305 
Boxing, Shandong 7,000  2,850  3,400  3,600  160  -360  3,300 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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