Today (Dec. 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: White House economic advisor said that the phase 1 trade deal with China could possibly be signed around next week. China’s Ministry of Agriculture approved one new genetically modified crop for import and renewed extra 10 import permits, which would hopefully boost soybean imports from the US. Therefore, US soybean futures rose last night. And meal futures also extend gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today.  Soybean meal spots mostly increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and there may be some purchases at low levels after good trading yesterday. Specifically, the price settles at 2700-2850yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2790-2810, Jiangsu 2740-2780, Dongguan 2700-2710, and Guangxi 2710-2740.) Mid-to-downstream buyers are stocking up soybean meal at full swing with the coming of the Spring Festival. Hog stocks are expected to increase sharply after May next year on handsome profit in breeding and now that major production provinces have linked live hog slaughtering heads to local government performance examination. Besides, cost of import soybeans has been lifted by rising US soybean prices. Hence, soybean meal prices are buoyed to rebound. But mills will keep soybean crush high at 2.0 mln tonnes in both recent two weeks, so soybean meal stocks will continue to mount higher. In the meantime, the slaughtering rate of hog will increase in the run up to the Spring Festival, so hog breeding may be slack after the festival. In the context of strong oils and weak meals, feed companies are not confident about the market so that they will just make small replenishment, which may limit price rises. Buyers are suggested to replenish appropriately on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily rises in price today, of which it partially settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,200-2,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,240; Guangdong not offered; Fujian not offered). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid unresolved issues between China and Canada, so oil mills prop up prices. But soybean arrives at ports in large quantity this month, and soybean crush will keep at an extremely high level of 2 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, so the inventory of soybean meal also picks up again. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture in South China has been in an off season. And imported mixed meals arrive at port intensively, especially sunflower meal, further squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal. Therefore, the upward potential of rapeseed meal is limited, and short-term market is likely to keep fluctuating at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline or buy on immediate demand.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne. The slack consumption on fishmeal has dented the demand and hampered the overall shipment, which is bearish to the market. However, as juvenile fish takes up a larger percentage, fishermen in Peru have urged the government to stop the fishing to protect the resources. Chinese traders are reluctant to adjust fishmeal prices as they are awaiting the fish catches after the ban is released. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steadily keep its strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 91,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,100 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,410 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal stays stable today. The price of cottonseed remains high, and the turnover goes better with the downstream stockpiling starting ahead of holiday. Besides, meals on DCE today rise further, and spot soybean meal mostly up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Accordingly, these factors support cottonseed meal market. But the demand is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, and aquaculture in South China is in the off season. The both factors restrain the upward space of cottonseed meal market. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal may fluctuate to rebound moderately. Therefore, buyers can make appropriate replenishment on the dips but not chase up prices excessively.