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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 2/1/2020

2020-01-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,604  4,321  150 -867 4,007 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,582  4,321  150 -889 4,005 
Costal Shandong 6,970  2,830  3,560  4,321  150 -911 3,983 
Jiangsu 7,070  2,750  3,516  4,321  150 -955 3,959 
Guangdong 7,250  2,700  3,511  4,321  150 -961 3,916 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,604  4,221  150 -767 3,881 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,582  4,221  150 -789 3,878 
Costal Shandong 6,970  2,830  3,560  4,221  150 -811 3,857 
Jiangsu 7,070  2,750  3,516  4,221  150 -855 3,833 
Guangdong 7,250  2,700  3,511  4,221  150 -861 3,789 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,673  3,307  150  216  2,637 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,651  3,307  150  194  2,634 
Costal Shandong 6,970  2,830  3,630  3,307  150  173  2,611 
Jiangsu 7,070  2,750  3,587  3,307  150  130  2,586 
Guangdong 7,250  2,700  3,583  3,307  150  126  2,541 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,536  3,360  150  26  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,514  3,360  150  4  2,875 
Costal Shandong 6,970  2,830  3,490  3,360  150  -20  2,855 
Jiangsu 7,070  2,750  3,445  3,360  150  -65  2,832 
Guangdong 7,250  2,700  3,438  3,360  150  -72  2,791 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,570  3,500  150  -80  3,011 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,009 
Costal Shandong 6,970  2,830  3,525  3,500  150  -125  2,988 
Jiangsu 7,070  2,750  3,480  3,500  150  -170  2,965 
Guangdong 7,250  2,700  3,474  3,500  150  -176  2,922 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,020  3,060  3,571  3,440  160  -29  3,096 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,870  2,910  3,427  3,560  160  -293  3,276 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,880  2,880  3,405  3,580  160  -335  3,299 
Boxing, Shandong 7,000  2,850  3,400  3,600  160  -360  3,300 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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